Sure Bets Sunday Night

It's Academy Award week! I always look forward to the Academy Awards, which I consider the Super Bowl of the entertainment world. I'm not always pleased with the results, but it's fascinating to study the races, read the predictions, make my picks, and watch them fall apart. OK, that last part isn't fun, just usually true.

Later this week I'll recap my last two Best Picture nominees (Thursday), examine the races, make picks, and take a look back at winners over the last 50 years. But today, I thought I'd offer my prediction for three races that look like sure bets on Sunday.

Best Animated Feature — "Toy Story 3."
Rarely does an animated film earn a Best Picture nomination, and when it does you can be pretty sure that it will take the animated feature category. That was certainly the case with "Up" last year, and it should be the case with "Toy Story 3" this year. But that's only part of the reason I consider this category a lock (probably the biggest lock of the awards). "Toy Story 3" really was one of the best films of 2010. It had a story that appealed to several different audience groups, it was artfully put together, and it had an emotional resonance that's hard to find in any film, let alone an animated feature. "How to Train Your Dragon" was a solid film, and I'm sure "The Illusionist" is as well, but "Toy Story 3" was an exceptional film.

Best Adapted Screenplay — Aaron Sorkin, "The Social Network"
"The Social Network" may have fallen out of favor for the biggest prize, but it is still likely to pick up a number of other awards. Perhaps none is as sure a bet at Sorkin to win the adapted screenplay prize. Sorkin has long been one of the most dynamic writers, and with "The Social Network" he took a traditional story and punched it up with dialogue unlike anything that opened in 2010. It might be his best work, which is really saying something.

Best Actor — Colin Firth, "The King's Speech"
Firth came close to nabbing the top honors last year for his work in "A Single Man." Though, personally, I would lean another way, Firth seems to be the closest thing to a lock in the acting categories. He has swept the awards leading up to this point and appears poised to ride the tidal wave of support for his film all the way to his first Oscar.

The Academy Awards will be held Sunday at 5 p.m.

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