Regression to the Mean



We have made it through the first six weeks of the NFL season. Usually, at this point, you start to get a sense of who these teams are going to be. Not so this year. Most of the teams are trapped between 2-4 and 4-2, with a large number sitting at 3-3. That's pretty average and fails to really give anyone an impression of who the 12 playoff teams will be.

Consider the case of the AFC East. Conventional wisdom prior to the season was that the New England Patriots were an elite NFL team and should win the division. You could still feel that way, but it's hard to tell. All four teams in the division currently sit at 3-3. In other words, it's still anyone's game.

But that, too, is deceiving. The New York Jets, for example, have looked awful in three defeats, and looked pretty good in three wins. The Buffalo Bills have offered a similar story. Prior to surprising Arizona on Sunday, the Bills had been getting crushed. Then there's the Miami Dolphins, perhaps the division's biggest enigma, who've quietly reached .500. Who's to say what any of those three teams will look like in six more weeks.

Or what about the AFC West, where the Denver Broncos reached 3-3 and took the division lead over the 3-3 Chargers after clubbing the Chargers in the second half. The Chargers jumped out to a 24-0 lea — the fourth time in six games that Denver has trailed by 20 or more points — then gave up 35 unanswered points in the second half to lose the game and the division lead at home.

On the bottom of the division sit the Kansas City Chiefs, who bludgeoned New Orleans in New Orleans and played the 5-1 Baltimore Ravens close, and the Oakland Raiders, who beat the Pittsburgh Steelers and nearly upset the Atlanta Falcons (6-0) at home on Sunday. Both teams have just one win and seem out of it, but who can tell?

Even the teams that seem to have distanced themselves are unpredictable. The Falcons are the only undefeated team, but after uneven play it would have been surprising if they were 3-3. Or, what about the Ravens. They're 5-1, but the traditionally defensive-minded team gave up 200 yards rushing to lowly Kansas City, got shredded by the Dallas Cowboys Sunday, and now lost two defensive stars for the year. But, the team is on a pace to break the record for most 20+ yard plays. Still, they could easily be 3-3, or 6-0 if not for a fluky loss to the Philadelphia Eagles.

Prior to Sunday I thought the Houston Texans and San Francisco 49ers were the best teams in the NFL. Then Sunday happened. The Texans, a defensive powerhouse, surrendered 42 points to the Green Bay Packers at home and the  49ers were bludgeoned by the mercurial New York Giants at home.

So what does all this mean? Who knows! But it's going to be a fun sprint to the finish this NFL season.

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