Player Profile: Jay Cutler

Well, we’re finally to the pre-season, and real football is right around the corner. And by real football, I mean the official Fantasy Football season. I mean, come on, that’s what we’re all here for anyway, right?

But before we get there, we have to survive camp and pre-season. And in terms of fantasy, that means trying to recover from crippling injuries. One of those came when Dolphins QB Ryan Tannehill — already working his way back from a knee injury that ended last season early — took an awkward step and re-injured his knee. He’s now had ACL surgery and is out for the season.

That instantly left folks wondering what the Dolphins would do. Would they turn to Matt Moore, a well-paid backup who was serviceable to end 2016, including a playoff start. Would the Dolphins consider Colin Kaepernick, whose talent on the field seems to get lost in the off-the-field stories. Or would they sign Jay Cutler, the 34-year-old who seemed set to move to the booth but had worked with Dolphins coach Adam Gase before?

The Dolphins signed Cutler, of course. And now he and Moore will likely battle to lead this team in 2017 as it hopes for back-to-back playoff berths. But what can you really expect from Cutler this season? Is he worth a pick up in fantasy? Let’s explore.

I need to begin with a confession, I have always sort of had a soft spot for Cutler. I am a Denver Broncos fan, and always have been, and I remember when Cutler, then fresh out of Vanderbilt, was drafted by Mike Shanahan as the foundation of the Broncos’ franchise. The Broncos were coming off a season in which reclamation project Jake Plummer led the team to the AFC Championship Game.

And yet, no one thought he was the long-term answer. So in came Cutler, and we all knew it was just a matter of time until he got onto the field.

After Plummer started the 2006 season, Cutler came on and started the final five games, going 2–3, throwing for just over 1,000 yards, nine TDs and five INTs. (On a side note, I think every Broncos fan would sell their first born to have Cutler back after watching Siemian and Lynch crater on Thursday night. But I digress). It wasn’t incredible, but it was a start. And after Plummer left following the season, it was Cutler’s team.

In 2007 and 2008, the Broncos had a great offense but not much else. The team was middling at best, and Shanahan was let go following Cutler’s second full season as starter. In those two seasons, though, he showed some of the promise we’d expected when he was drafted. He went 15–17 as a starter in those season, but was clearly a gun slinger. In 2007, Cutler threw for 3,497 yards and 20 TDs. In 2008, he upped it to 4,526 yards and 25 TDs. His problem was turnovers. In 2007, Cutler threw 14 INTs and in 2008 he upped it to 18 INTs.

Still, as Josh McDaniels came in as the Broncos’ new coach, the Denver offense seemed to be our best asset. Naturally, McDaniels decided to blow it up, quickly trading Cutler to the Bears for Kyle Orton and a bag of magic beans. (It’s been nearly a decade, and we’ve since won a Super Bowl, but I, like many Broncos fans, remain bitter toward McDaniels and his tragically misguided era as Denver’s coach).

If you’re a Bears fan, I apologize for this next section. It won’t be pretty, and it won’t be easy to remember. Cutler was hailed as a franchise savior when he arrived in Chicago, and was quickly awarded a massive contract. He stayed there for eight seasons, but it’s safe to say he never lived up to the hype, and his relationship with the fan base was often sub-optimal.

In 2009, his first season in Chicago, Cutler looked a lot like he did for the Broncos in 2008. His team went 7–9, but her threw for 3,666 yards and a career-high 27 TDs. He also tossed a career-high 26 INTs. And that remained the story of his career in Chicago… that and injuries.

Cutler led the Bears to a pair of winning seasons in his time there, going 10–5 as a starter in 2010 and 2012. In 2010, the Bears finished 11–5 and made the playoffs. In 2012, they went 10–6 and just missed. In two career playoff games, Cutler threw for 354 yards, two TDs and an INT, going 1–1. Not terrible, but hardly what the team thought they were paying for.

2016 was his final campaign with the Bears, as he played just five games, going 1–4 with 1,059 yards, four TDs and five INTs. And the Bears moved on this off-season, and Cutler found little interest in his skills. At least until Tannehill went down.

Dolphins fans, please step back from the ledge. Yes, if you looked at his career in Chicago, you’d probably be bummed. But Cutler might not be terrible in Miami. But I doubt he’s going to be a franchise savior, either.

Much of the optimism seemed to spring for Cutler’s work with Gase in Chicago in 2015. And Cutler was decent, though the Bears weren’t. Despite a rash of injuries, Cutler finished his season with Gase with a 64.4 percent completion percentage, 3,659 yards and 21 TDs. He also threw just 11 INTs, which seemed to be an improvement given his career numbers. The fact he went 6–9 in those 15 games can’t be blamed entirely on him.

But let’s not get carried away. Those numbers were only good enough for Cutler to be QB21 in Fantasy, which would have him as a borderline starter in 2 QB leagues with 12 or more teams. But is that much different than last year?

Ryan Tannehill, in his first year with the Dolphins, posted a 67.1 percent completion percentage, 2,995 yards, 19 TDs and 12 INTs, going 8–5 in 13 starts. That was good enough for QB27 in fantasy, and not that much different than Cutler’s numbers in 2015.

Then there’s Moore, who started the final three games of the season for the Dolphins. He went 2–1, with a 63.3 percent completion percentage, 721 yards, eight TDs and three INTs. It’s a small sample, but it was on par with what the Dolphins were getting prior to Tannehill’s injury. In Moore’s last season where he started a majority of the games, 2011, he went 6–6 and threw for 2,497 yards, 16 TDs and nine INTs on a 60.5 percent completion percentage. So he’s a journeyman QB, and won’t be a star, but isn’t a dramatic fall off in terms of play for Miami.

So we know Tannehill is out, and that’s a blow for those that hoped to see him progress in year two under Gase with a great collection of weapons, including receivers Jarvis Landry, DeVante Parker, Kenny Stills and tight end Julius Thomas. Not to mention a full season of last year’s break-out running back, Jay Ajayi. The Dolphins finished as a playoff team in 2016 and have aspirations to return in 2017. Now, they’re left with Moore and Cutler to guide this offense.

Looking at the numbers, either Cutler or Moore should be able to suitably replace Tannehill’s production in the offense. And the weapons around them haven’t changed. Both should know the system, and Moore certainly knows the personnel, too. The question, as always, for Cutler is health and whether he can curb his turn overs. He only threw 11 INTs in 15 starts for Gase in Chicago, and those are numbers that his coach would likely want to see remain steady or improve. In terms of real life football impact, going from Tannehill to either Moore or Cutler shouldn’t be a death knell for the Dolphins’ playoff chances.

But what does it mean for fantasy? Well, probably what it would have meant for fantasy before. You weren’t drafting Tannehill as your season-long starter in single QB leagues prior to this month, and you shouldn’t be grabbing Cutler in that role now. Remember, their history together is one year that was a QB21 finish. But in 2 QB leagues, or deeper leagues where all the QBs end up on a roster, Cutler is a perfect QB2–3 flier. In leagues where I’ve grabbed him, that’s my expectation. I rostered him in a deep 16-team league where Wilson is my every week starter and Cutler would be my bye-week, injury insurance.

If you’re planning on Cutler being your fantasy savior, you’re in for a bad time. But if you’re looking for an option with upside, he could be your man. Especially since he likely has something to prove after nearly falling out of the league this off-season. But, be weary, Moore could still end up being the guy there, too.