Player Profile: Trevor Siemian

Every summer we enter NFL training camps with some high-profile battles. For the second summer in a row, Trevor Siemian has entered the Denver Broncos’ training camp in a battle to be the starter. And for the second year in a row, he’s been named the winner.

Siemian was an afterthought in the 2015 NFL draft. Denver got him in the seventh round, at Pick No. 250, and there wasn’t much expected. Siemian came into camp off a knee injury suffered at Northwestern, and he wasn’t exactly a highly touted NFL prospect before the injury. Still, Broncos’ coach Gary Kubiak liked what he saw, and decided to take Siemian as a project.

He spent that first year as the third quarterback after impressing in camp. He was behind Peyton Manning, a first-ballot Hall of Famer, and Brock Osweiler, who is famous for another reason, as the Broncos rode the wave to the Super Bowl 50 title.

Then in the off-season Manning retired, Osweiler signed with the Houston Texans (sorry guys, I know that still hurts), and suddenly Siemian was the only quarterback left standing. That, of course, didn’t last long. The Broncos traded for Mark Sanchez (yikes, that still hurts me as a Broncos fan) and drafted Paxton Lynch at No. 20 overall. So Siemian entered training camp as part of the competition, but seemed to be a distant third.

In fact, when I attended training camp for the Broncos in July 2016, I thought Siemian had no chance at being the starter. He looked well behind the others, and even though Kubiak liked him, I didn’t see any possibilities. Then I saw him play in the pre-season, and suddenly he began to emerge as not only a serious contender, but the best passer on the roster.

We all know what happened. Lynch wasn’t ready for prime time. Sanchez got shipped off to the Dallas Cowboys after Tony Romo got hurt. And Siemian, suddenly and unexpectedly, was the starting quarterback for the Denver Broncos.

As history seemingly repeated itself this summer, we’re left to wonder what we can expect from Siemian as a fantasy asset.

A Wildcat at Heart

I work for someone who graduated from Northwestern University, and it’s clear that alums are pumped. Even Michael Wilbon, of Pardon The Interruption, has applauded Siemian getting the job. But if you were to look at his performance as the signal caller for Northwestern, it probably wouldn’t have screamed NFL starter.

While Siemian played in each of his first two seasons (actually throwing 218 times for more than 1,300 yards and six touchdowns as a sophomore), he was the majority starter his last two seasons. He ended up completing 59.7 percent of his passes for 2,149 yards, 11 TDs and nine INTs as a junior. As a senior, he completed 58.2 percent of his passes for 2,214 yards, seven TDs and 11 INTs.

While those numbers are fine, they hardly jump off the page. And surely his injury to close his college career would have been enough for most teams to close the book and move on. But Kubiak liked his workouts and potential, and saw him as a fit in his system.

A Starter in Denver

In 2016, we got to see how Siemian would fit. He played in and started 14 games for the Broncos, going 8–6 in those games. He threw for 3,401 yards, 18 TDs and just 10 INTs, completing 59.5 percent of his passes. While not incredible, Siemian was a solid NFL starter, and even showed flashes of growth and improvement throughout the season. And this was despite an injury suffered in Week 4 at Tampa Bay that required major off-season surgery.

The Broncos’ offense wasn’t great, but as a fan who watched every week, it seemed a little too much blame was placed on Siemian. The Broncos couldn’t block and they couldn’t run, a deadly combination. And yet, Siemian — again despite a serious injury — put up decent numbers. And he wasn’t a killer in fantasy. Despite missing two games, he finished as QB26 in ESPN standard scoring. 

But heading into another season, Siemian’s job was far from a sure thing. Kubiak, probably Siemian’s biggest cheerleader in the organization, retired following the season. Vance Joseph was named head coach, and nearly immediately announced it would be an open competition again between Siemian and Lynch.

The Broncos then brought back Mike McCoy, who served as offensive coordinator from 2009 to 2012, to run the offense. His system was said to be a better fit for Lynch’s skill set, leading many to believe that Siemian could be the odd man out again. When camp began, the near daily reports seemed to suggest that Siemian and Lynch were neck-and-neck in competition.

But on Saturday night in San Francisco, it was clear that one quarterback — Siemian — was the only choice to start for Denver. After Lynch started and spent a quarter and a half dinking and dunking his way to 39 yards on nine completions, Siemian came in and looked like a clear, professional starter right away. His 17-yard TD strike to Jordan Taylor essentially locked up the job in the minds of most fans, and on Monday Joseph made it official.

So, for the second year in a row, the Broncos head into the regular season with seventh round Northwestern product Siemian as the starter. But the question is what to expect in fantasy?

Conclusion

Let’s be honest, a few years ago we probably wouldn’t be having this conversation. And if you’re in a standard eight, 10 or 12-team league, you are probably just reading this because you’re a Denver fan or you’re bored. You’re not drafting Siemian. But that doesn’t mean it won’t impact you.

The most logical question for standard leagues is what happens to the Broncos’ skill players. Most notably that means wide receivers Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders. Thomas finished as WR16 in PPR last season, and his current ADP is WR14. That feels about right considering DT only caught five TDs in his 90 receptions last season. (He was also injured most of the season, which took a toll). I think with a few more TDs, he could flirt with Top 10 numbers, and I expect Siemian to take a step forward.

Sanders is an even better deal. It’s easy to forget that he was WR21 in PPR in 2016, and his current ADP has him as WR30. Sanders had some explosive games in 2016 and seemed to develop some rapport with Siemian. If the Broncos’ line holds up better, and the run-pass balance is better, that could increase his efficiency, especially as Siemian looks deep more often.

In the passing game, those are probably the only two real assets for the Broncos. But the question is what to expect from Siemian. Now, I will admit that I am a Broncos fan and probably a little biased, but I think Siemian has the potential to be a top 15 QB in fantasy. That doesn’t mean it will happen, but I think he has that upside, especially if the offense as a whole improves.

While I still don’t think he should be drafted in standard leagues that start a single QB, but with the rise of 2 QB, superflex and specialty scoring leagues, QB becomes an in-demand position. There are only 32 starters, and at least a quarter of the league has an unsettled situation at the position. When you’re in deep leagues, or leagues that allow you to start multiple QBs, everyone is an option, especially given the number of QB injuries each year. I think Siemian has a chance to be a decent streamer or fill-in option.

But that comes with a giant caveat.

Siemian was clearly the better option in the Broncos’ pre-season QB competition. But the Broncos invested a lot in Lynch, and have to wonder if he’s ever going to be “the guy.” That’s why I think the first four weeks of the season will be crucial for Siemian and the Broncos. Denver opens at home with the Chargers, hosts the Cowboys (likely without Ezekiel Elliot) in Week 2, heads to Buffalo in Week 3, then returns home to host the Oakland Raiders prior to the bye. That’s not a gimme stretch, but it’s a stretch that this team could handle.

The Broncos still have a great defense and some strong skill position players. They are only a year removed from a Super Bowl title, and the expectations in Denver remain high. This is a team that, by all accounts, expects to be in the playoffs. If they start 3–1 or 4–0 prior to the bye, I think Siemian remains in the job throughout the season.

But if the Broncos get off to a disastrous start, and it looks like they’re fading from the playoff picture as they hit the early bye (1–3 or 0–4), I think the Broncos turn it over to Lynch and give him a long look to determine whether to keep him long-term or cut bait. Those are the opportunities afforded to players drafted high in the first round, and it is a caution to those who might rely on Siemian as a QB2. (And I include myself in this discussion in a few leagues). 

I agree that Siemian should enter the season ranked in the 20s among quarterbacks, but I still like his potential on this team with an improved offensive line and scheme. When you’re looking at options like Josh McCown, Mike Glennon, Tom Savage, DeShone Kizer, Cody Kessler, DeShaun Watson, and Mitchell Trubisky to find depth and options, Siemian becomes a more attractive choice. These are cheap, end of the line options you hope might break out in season. But, as with so many players in this range, draft with caution.