Fantasy Movie League, New Year's Weekend


We’re heading into another four-day holiday frame for New Years, as the weekend kicks off on Friday, December 29 and wraps up on Monday, January 1. And while last week saw a glut of new entries to the game, this week sees a pretty static lineup at our Fantasy Movie League options.

And most see a pretty static finish at the Box Office, too, with Star Wars: The Last Jedi and Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle sitting atop all the prognostication charts. But how they finish will be key. Last week it looked like Star Wars was poised to pull in around $125 million, making it an ideal anchor. It fell short of that mark and made just $100 million. Jumanji, meanwhile, was projected at about $45 million and went for $50-plus, making it a better anchor option.

I was right about Darkest Hour, which was just $16 FML bucks and added 700 screens, being a great shot at Best Value. It was. But hedging my best with Star Wars cost me. The Perfect Cineplex was Jumanji x3, The Greatest Showman, Darkest Hour x4, and it brought in more than $200 million. My lineup: Star Wars, Coco x2, Darkest Hour x5 was the most popular and brought in just $153 million.

This week, it’s about figuring out what movies will hold up best at the Box Office. On to New Year’s Weekend!

New At The Box Office:

There are just two new options in Fantasy Movie League this week after nine new selections a week ago. One is the Best of the Rest, which will be the total Box Office for any films not captured in the 14 other selections. So the only truly new entry is Molly’s Game, the biopic from writer/director Aaron Sorkin starring Jessica Chastain. The film opened in limited release for its Oscar run on Christmas Day and now debuts in the game. It boasts a decent 79 percent critical score from Rotten Tomatoes, but it’s still in limited release and not available in most markets. That limits its upside. The film is just $21 FML Bucks, making it one of the cheaper options, but Fantasy Movie League projects just $2.3 million at the Box Office. For it to be a great option, it would need to be the Best Value.

The Search for the Best Value:

Again this week, it’s all about selecting the best anchor to maximize Box Office haul, hoping to hit Best Value and filling it up right. The two options are again Star Wars and Jumanji. Fantasy Movie League predicts $77.8 million for Star Wars, while Box Office Report is more cautious at $72.5 million. For Jumanji, Fantasy Movie League sees $58 million, as does Box Office Report. The difference this week is in the cost, as Star Wars is $610 FML Bucks while Jumanji is $588 FML Bucks, meaning you can’t stack Jumanji like you could last weekend. Star Wars underperformed its projections last week, but this week it’s so close to Jumanji in cost it’s hard to go away from a Star Wars Anchor.

A sneaky option for Anchor could be Pitch Perfect 3, which is projected at $25 million for Fantasy Movie League and $22 million for Box Office Report. It costs just $242 FML Bucks, so you could stack it up. Another potential stack is The Greatest Showman, which has musical appeal, and could be stacked as many as six times.

In terms of Best Value, a sneaky option is All The Money in the World. Last week it looked to be an attractive option, but since it opened only on Christmas Day, it only had a single day to be in the competition. Those that didn’t realize its setback likely could dismiss it as an option this week. But with four days to compete, and appearing in 2,000-plus theaters, it could be a good value contender at just $40 FML Bucks. Another attractive option is Downsizing, which is $64 FML Bucks and projected right around the same total as Darkest Hour, which costs $93 FML Bucks this week.

This Week’s Lineup:

This week was a struggle for me as I could see a lot of possibilities. I could see a lot of them doing well, but I’m taking a shot with this one hoping that I’m on the money about All The Money in the World.

Star Wars: The Last Jedi
The Greatest Showman
All The Money in the World x6

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