Fantasy Movie League, MLK Weekend


Well, the first weekend of January brought new entries that most experts didn’t take seriously. And, of course, it brought the first surprise of the year as people decided to flock to Insidious: The Last Key in droves, bringing its Box Office total to $29.6 million, besting Star Wars, and becoming the anchor you wanted last weekend.

I, of course, didn’t pick that as an anchor. It was a weird week. But the Perfect Cineplex was Insidious x3 and Darkest Hour x4, leaving a screen open (which is a deduction of $2 million). Darkest Hour was easily the Best Value, pushing the total of that Box Office to nearly $124 million despite the deduction. My cineplex, Jumanji x2, Coco x4, Downsizing x2, brought in just over $100 million. The most popular cineplex reflected how hard it was to read last weekend, as it featured Jumanji, Star Wars, Pitch Perfect 3, The Greatest Showman and Wonder, leaving three screens open (a deduction of $6 million).

Also, Fantasy Movie League is tracking a cumulative 13-week season competition if you’re in leagues. After six weeks, I’m currently 12 in the Fantasy Life App competition and 122 in Friends of TMR. Not terrible, but still some work to do.

And for the first time in 2018, we have a flood of new wide releases. But will any of them rise to the top?

New at the Box Office:

There are five new entries to this week’s competition, but one of them is just the good old Fantasy Movie League favorite “Best of the Rest,” which includes other movies not in the Top 14 options. The biggest new wide release for this weekend is The Post, the Steven Spielberg film about the Washington Post’s legal battle regarding the Pentagon Papers in the 1970s. It had a limited release in December. It boasts a robust 87 percent critical score on Rotten Tomatoes, and figures to be a power player during Awards season. (It had six Golden Globe nominations.) It also stars Meryl Streep and Tom Hanks, so it should have little trouble finding an audience. That being said, it’s not likely to take the top spot at the Box Office. Fantasy Movie League sees it third with $22.3 million, while Box Office Pro $21 million and Box Office Report is incredibly bullish with $26.5 million. Both those see The Post as a strong second at the weekend Box Office. At $210 FML Bucks it is the second most expensive, and that is in line with the projections.
The next biggest release is Paddington 2, a family-friendly sequel with that loveable bear. The 2014 original was a surprise hit, grabbing $25.2 million opening weekend on the way to a domestic total of just over $76 million coming out in a similar January frame. And this sequel boasts a ridiculous 100 percent critical score on Rotten Tomatoes at the moment. It’s priced at $201 FML Bucks, the third highest total of the weekend. It’s projected for $22.4 million, in second place, for Fantasy Movie League. Box Office Pro calls for $20.4 million, third place, while Box Office Report projects just $19.5 million, in fourth place. Using Paddington 2 in your Box Office will likely be a reflection of how you feel about those projections.
The third new entry is Proud Mary. This one features Taraji P. Henson, of Empire, as a hit woman for the mob. This looks like the kind of like a fun action movie, and some of the story elements remind me of the plot of The Replacement Killers. There will be bullets. There will be personality. And there might be some solid Box Office dollars. The film doesn’t have a score as yet on Rotten Tomatoes, but it is valued at $169 FML Bucks, fifth most expensive. Fantasy Movie League sees it fourth with $18.5 million and Box Office Pro sees it in the same spot with $17.5 million. But Box Office Report sees it rising to $20 million and third place, likely based on Henson’s popularity.
The final new film is The Commuter, which could reasonably be labeled as Taken meets Speed. Liam Neeson is there, joined by Vera Farmiga and Patrick Wilson, and the action takes place on a train. For a few years with Taken, Neeson seemed to own the action movie hot spot in January, but this boasts just a so-so 59 percent critical score on Rotten Tomatoes. The Commuter is $143 FML Bucks, sixth most, and Fantasy Movie League sees it in sixth place with $14.6 million. Box Office Pro projects $13.5 million and Box Office Report projects $15 million. The Neeson action genre may be winding down.

The Search for the Best Value:

Can Jumanji be stopped? In years past, it was the annual Star Wars release that remained atop the Box Office for weeks to end one year and start another. And while Star Wars started strong, Jumanji has been the surprise of the season, and took the top spot last weekend. And no one thinks it will cede that position, even among the four new releases. It costs $293 FML Bucks, the most of the weekend, but Fantasy Movie League sees $32.7 million, Box Office Pro sees $34 million and Box Office Report sees $37 million. That will make it easily a better option at anchor than the glut of new releases.

Meanwhile, last week’s surprise hit Insidious: The Last Key boasts a cost of $170 FML Bucks, fourth most, but has projections from all three sites at about $13 million. It appears to be a poor choice for a Best Value. Star Wars, meanwhile, is now seventh most expensive at $139 FML Bucks and boasts a $15.5 million projection from Fantasy Movie League. But Box Office Pro projects $16.5 million and Box Office Report projects $17.5 million, meaning it could have swung back into Best Value range.

This Week’s Lineup:

This is another week where there are a lot of ways to go. But the past few weeks of Perfect Cineplex options have shown the wisdom in going against convention. Many will be drawn to the flock of new films, but given their price points and the variation in projections, it’s clear that folks are having trouble reading what will hit with audiences. And selecting Insidious is just chasing last week’s dollars. Meanwhile, I feel like Star Wars could slip into that Best Value range and is priced to bulk up your Cineplex, so I’m taking my shot.

Star Wars: The Last Jedi x6
Pitch Perfect 3 x2

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