NFL Picks, Divisional Weekend

So Wildcard Weekend didn’t go quite as expected. Sure, the Jaguars and the Saints prevailed on Sunday, and they were favored. But the Saints-Panthers game was a bit closer than initially expected, and the Jaguars-Bills game was a 10–3 barn burner.

But Saturday, well that was a whole other situation. And I think it went that way because I failed to account for two critical things. First, with the Chiefs, the talk all week was their long home playoff drought. In fact, they haven’t won a playoff game since Joe Montana was their quarterback. But it seemed impossible to believe that the Chiefs could actually lose to the Titans. I mean, the Titans limped into the playoffs after losing three straight games Weeks 14, 15 and 16. The Chiefs weren’t incredible throughout, but they began the season going 5–0 and finished on a four-game winning streak. And they were the better team. When they got up 21–3 at halftime, I actually turned the game off.

But, you see, that home playoff drought is real. As is Andy Reid’s playoff record. He’s 11–13 overall, but since 2009 he’s just 1–6, including 1–4 with the Chiefs. And that includes blowing a 28-point lead to the Colts in 2014 and an 18-point lead Saturday. So, basically, no lead is safe and you shouldn’t trust the Chiefs at home.

With the Falcons and Rams game, the mistake was underestimating the importance of playoff experience. The Falcons have plenty, including making it to the Super Bowl last season. The Rams had virtually none on their roster, especially in key positions. And that also showed. The Falcons weren’t a dominant team during the regular season and the Rams were at times, but the Falcons came out with a little swagger on Saturday that comes from having been there before. And that turned out to be the difference.

So I’m 2–2 in the playoffs and hoping for better in the Divisional Round. Lindsay picked the Falcons, so she's 3-1 in the playoffs so far. In other words, I'm behind.

Saturday’s Games:
Atlanta Falcons (11–6) at Philadelphia Eagles (13–3)
About: Last week the Falcons were underdogs in Los Angeles. This week, they’re a three point favorite in Philadelphia against the NFC’s top seed. What gives? Well, it comes back to experience and health — specifically the fact Eagles’ quarterback Carson Wentz is out and Nick Foles is in. And it’s understandable given the Eagles’ last three games that folks would have some concerns about Foles. He was OK in Week 15, his first start, where he threw for four TDs in leading the Eagles to a 34–29 win over the Giants. But in Week 16, he threw for 163 yards, one TD and one INT against the Raiders. The Eagles still won, 19–10, but it wasn’t pretty, and the Raiders didn’t have a great defensive season. In Week 17, Foles only played part of the game, but he finished 4-for-11 for 39 yards and an INT against the Cowboys. So, yeah, he had his struggles. And while the Falcons weren’t great during the regular season, they were steady. And they have that experience. But we can’t totally count the Eagles out. The team was solid on defense and went 7–1 at home during the season. They still have plenty of weapons, and Foles is capable of putting up yards and points. But will that be enough against a veteran, playoff-tested QB like Matt Ryan?
The Pick: Falcons 24, Eagles 20
Lindsay's Pick: Eagles

Tennessee Titans (10–7) at New England Patriots (13–3)
About: The prime time game for the weekend takes the action to New England, where the Patriots will host the Titans. Much like last week, it’s hard to imagine the Titans winning. Or, rather, it’s hard to imagine the Patriots collapsing to the degree that the Chiefs did last week. The Patriots have plenty of playoff experience and were incredibly solid all season, winning a number of big games on the way to becoming the AFC’s top seed again. Marcus Mariota looked good last week, especially since he realized he could catch his own TD passes, and Derrick Henry was dominant on the ground. But the Patriots’ defense, after being gashed in September, put themselves together as the season progressed. I don’t think this will be that close. And the Patriots simply have too many weapons, beginning with Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski.
The Pick: Patriots 34, Titans 13
Lindsay: Patriots

Sunday’s Games:
Jacksonville Jaguars (11–6) at Pittsburgh Steelers (13–3)
About: It was hard to watch the Jaguars play offense last Sunday. Blake Bortles wasn’t bad, but his 87 yards passing was hardly impressive. The case for the Jaguars, if you’re going to make one, is Week 5, when they went into Pittsburgh and recorded a 30–9 victory. They forced Ben Roethlisberger to throw five interceptions, held Le’Veon Bell in check, and looked like a contender. Since then, Pittsburgh has gotten stronger and the Jaguars have, well, not. I still like their defense, and they can certainly be annoying for the Steelers, but it’s hard to imagine a repeat of that October match up. The biggest challenge for the Steelers might be health. Antonio Brown was injured in Week 15 against the Patriots and didn’t play the final two weeks of the season. The goal was always for him to return in the playoffs, but he is back at practice and should return on Sunday. With Brown, Bell, Roethlisberger, Juju Smith-Schuster and Martavis Bryant, the Steelers have a ton of weapons to spread the field and find weaknesses. And the emergence of Vance McDonald and Jesse James down the stretch gives them tight end targets over the middle of the field, too. Barring a complete mental collapse, they are the better team and should clear this hurdle.
The Pick: Steelers 24, Jaguars 10
Lindsay: Jaguars

New Orleans Saints (12–5) at Minnesota Vikings (13–3)
About: This is the best game of the weekend, and it’s sort of a shame that these teams are meeting in the Divisional Round. Had the Rams held serve at home last weekend, we would have had a chance to get this as the NFC Championship Game. Prior to the start of the playoffs, many predicted that. These seemed like the best, most balanced and healthiest teams heading into the playoffs. These two teams played each other Week 1, with the Vikings earning the 29–19 win at home. But it’s hard to read much into that game. Adrian Peterson was still the primary ball carrier for the Saints, and Sam Bradford threw for three touchdowns to lead the Vikings to victory. Since then, Case Keenum has become a rock for the Vikings at quarterback, and Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram have established themselves as the best running back tandem in the league. The Saints’ defense has also gotten better. And both teams have a mixture of playoff experience and newbies on the roster and among the coaches. This could come down to home field advantage. The Vikings finished the season 7–1 at home this season, while the Saints were just 4–4 on the road. It’s not much, but in a game this even, every advantage counts.
The Pick: Vikings 31, Saints 27
Lindsay: Vikings