Fantasy Movie League: The Avengers Are Here!


What a weekend. Tonight, the NFL Draft begins with what should be a thrilling first round. And then we get to continue that draft on Friday and Saturday. The NBA playoffs and NHL playoffs are in full bloom. Major League Baseball is kicking into gear. May is on the horizon, and with it summer. And, oh by the way, the Summer Movie Blockbuster season begins with Avengers: Infinity War. I may not sleep until Sunday.

You can read plenty on this site about the NFL Draft, including our final staff Mock Draft, and look for live coverage of Round One tonight. But I’m here, as I do every Thursday, to try and guide you through the choppy waters of the Fantasy Movie League. This week sees the return of daily scoring, but more on that in a bit. First, let’s consider last week.

There have been many times so far in 2018 where, by the time we get to Thursday, the Best Value seems to pop out. Sometimes we want to dismiss that, but of late I’ve given into it. That was the case last week, where Super Troopers 2, at $84 FML Bucks, was clearly tracking to be the Best Value. And it easily accomplished that, taking in $15.2 million. The Perfect Cineplex was A Quiet Place, which continues to post strong Box Office numbers, plus Super Troopers 2 x7, which was also the Most Popular option. I thought I Feel Pretty could have some sleeper value, but it underwhelmed with just $16 million and was kind of a bore. So, needless to say, I missed the mark a bit. But hope springs eternal each Thursday.

Which leads me to this week. We have three new entries to the game, but only one new release at the Box Office. I’ll let you puzzle on that for a moment as we prepare to look at this week’s competition!

New at the Box Office:

Did I mention that Avengers: Infinity War is opening this weekend? Perhaps you’ve heard of it. The third installment of the Avengers, which brings together all the key players from 10 years and 18 films in the Marvel Cinematic Universe, could be the cinematic event of the summer, and it moved up a week (from its original May 4 release date) to capitalize on a slower period at theaters. And so far, that seems like a solid plan. Pre-sale tickets for Avengers: Infinity War are outpacing Black Panther, which shattered Box Office records in February. So, year, it’s a safe bet this movie is going to make a ton of money at the Box Office this weekend.

And it’s another Marvel film with a good critical score, boasting 86 percent on Rotten Tomatoes. Not that reviews will really impact audience appetite for seeing Chris Pratt’s Star Lord and Robert Downey, Jr.’s Tony Stark in the same scene. And as with massive openings like this, Fantasy Movie League has responded with daily scoring — creating the only three new entries to this week’s game. (Now you see how we have three new entries and only one film!) The last time we saw daily scoring, with Black Panther, the film outpaced expectation every day of the weekend, and Sunday ended up being the Best Value. Of course Friday’s haul also includes the preview screenings from tonight, and could be poised to be massive. Also worth considering is the fact that the NFL draft runs Thursday, Friday and Saturday, but will be over for Sunday screenings. So, needless to say, there’s a lot to consider.

But regardless, some combination of Avengers: Infinity War will be the anchor. Friday is the most expensive at $620 FML Bucks, and is projected at $110.7 million by Fantasy Movie League. Box Office Report is projecting $230 million for the weekend, which could be low. (The week’s No. 2 film, A Quiet Place, costs $70 FML Bucks and is projected between $11-$12 million.) Saturday is $411 FML Bucks, and projected at just over $72 million. While Sunday’s scoring is $334 FML Bucks and projected at about $59 million.

The Search For The Best Value:

While Avengers: Infinity War is the clear top option, and should be an anchor in some form, it’s about how you fill out your screen. You could do a Friday-Sunday option, a couple Saturdays, or as many as three Sundays. It all depends on how you want to fill out your screens (and if you’re OK taking a $2 million deduction for empty screens.) If you went with some Saturday and Sunday options, that would afford you a chance to pick up a few screens of A Quiet Place, the film that’s dominated the last three weeks. It’s a decent bet to hold up fairly well.

Among smaller options, Black Panther, which has held strong since February, could get a boost. It’s only $32 FML bucks, and both sites see it between $4.5 and $5 million, as people may want to return to a Wakanda-centric story before seeing the Black Panther join the Avengers in saving the world. And if you need to go ultra cheap, Traffik is only $11 FML Bucks and carries a projection around $2 million. It likely won’t be a best value, but it could boost the bottom line.

This Week’s Lineup:

I’ve considered a few different options, but for me I think the best shot at winning comes from giving myself a shot a value. I think Avengers: Infinity War will post a monster total on Friday, but I think Sunday is a sneaky player, too, considering the draft will be over.

Avengers: Infinity War (Friday)
Avengers: Infinity War (Sunday)
Traffik x2
Chappaquiddick x4

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