Fantasy Movie League: The Rock goes on a Rampage

Well, it turned out that all of last week’s releases performed well against expectation. A Quiet Place, my pick for anchor, outpaced its projections with a $50 million opening weekend. Unfortunately, I bet on I Can Only Imagine and Sherlock Gnomes as being values, and while both were fine they didn’t capture that title.

Instead Blockers also outpaced its projections, bringing in nearly $21 million, and the Perfect Cineplex correctly loaded up on Chappaquiddick, the tale of Ted Kennedy’s infamous crash, which was the Best Value with $5.8 million. The $17 million in bonuses for the Perfect Cineplex, which had Chappaquiddick six times, was enough to give it a $27 million edge on my cineplex.

This week, Dwayne Johnson returns to theaters with Rampage, based on the classic video game. Last time he opened a movie — Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle — it outpaced projections and was solid for a good long run. Will that happen again? Let’s consider.

New at the Box Office:

While Sgt. Stubby: An American Hero and Beirut open in limited release this week, only two new films have been added to the Fantasy Movie League competition. The biggest of those is Rampage, the new action film from Johnson that wasn’t exactly a hit with critics, racking up a 48 percent on Rotten Tomatoes so far. The film is the most expensive of the week, carrying a cost of $535 FML Bucks, and is projected atop the Box Office by everyone. Fantasy Movie League projects $36.6 million, Box Office Pro projects $36.5 million and Box Office Report is less bullish with $33.5 million. Given the cost and projections, it feels like a poor anchor. Rampage doesn’t seem likely to have the same kind of universal appeal as Jumanji, and doesn’t seem as likely to defy Box Office projections.

The other new film is Blumhouse’s Truth or Dare. Blumhouse scored with Get Out last February, but the company has typically been known for smaller horror films. And this teen thriller based on a deadly, and cursed, game of Truth or Dare fits that mold. The film stars Lucy Hale, and carries a cost of $207 FML Bucks, third most for the week. But it has a terrible score of 24 percent on Rotten Tomatoes, though that likely won’t dissuade the target audience. The film doesn’t carry high projections across the board. While Fantasy Movie League sees it in third place with $16.7 million, Box Office Pro sees it with $13.5 million in fourth place and Box Office Report projects just $15 million. That makes it a poor anchor.

The Search for the Best Value:

Last week A Quiet Place broke out huge, and has the kind of word of mouth that could help it have another huge weekend. It’s priced at $361, quite a bit less than Rampage, and carries a projection of $31.8 million on Fantasy Movie League and $32 million from Box Office Report, putting it just $1.5 million off the lead at that site. But Box Office Pro is less bullish, projecting $28.5 million. Still, if it’s on the high end, or exceeds, projections, it would be a good anchor.

Other possible anchors are Ready Player One and Blockers. Ready Player One costs $167, meaning it could go across a number of screens, and carries projections between $13 and $14 million, with Fantasy Movie League in the middle. Blockers is $147 FML Bucks and carries projections of $12 to $13, with Fantasy Movie League being the highest. Of the two, I’d say Ready Player One is a better bet.

On the lower end, the projections don’t really give me a good feeling about any of the cheaper options standing out as a Best Value, so go with your gut in filling out your Cineplex. This is one of those strange weeks where someone’s going to get lucky.

This Week’s Lineup:

Based on the reactions to A Quiet Place, and the way it’s held up during the week, I think it could have another big weekend. So I’m going with it for my anchor and filling the rest with lower cost options.

A Quiet Place x2

Sherlock Gnomes x6