Fantasy Movie League, A Crowded Box Office


Last weekend we saw another big blockbuster in Solo: A Star Wars Story. projections had its weekend take between $130-$140 million. It took in $103 over four days. Needless to say, that wreaked havoc in the Fantasy Movie League competition.

I correctly guessed there was value in Overboard and Life of the Party, with the former being the Best Value and the latter being the second best. Pairing those with Solo Sunday x2 gave me $13 million over the Most Popular Cineplex. But the Perfect Cineplex went with Avengers: Infinity War, Book Club x5, and Overboard x2. So I was close, but Solo did me in.

If last weekend was a challenge, this week is an even bigger question mark. It’s the start of the new Summer Season (a 13-week competition), and there are three new releases. But none are expected to be atop the Box Office, and it creates a big challenge to find the Best Value in order to win. Let’s consider the options.

New at the Box Office:

There are five new options in the game. One is Solo, now in single scoring rather than daily scoring. Another is The Best of the Rest, which is lumping in all the other movies at the Box Office. But there’s also three new films, the biggest of which is Adrift. The new film stars Sam Claflin and Shailene Woodley as a couple taking a sail boat across the ocean when they slam into a hurricane and things go sideways. It doesn’t yet have a critical score, but it seems like the kind of movie aiming to offer a serious, possibly award-worthy alternative in the summer. And the likeable stars will probably appeal audiences. The film is priced at $215 FML Bucks, the most expensive of the new films and third most of the week, and projected at $11.7 million for Fantasy Movie League. Box Office Pro and Box Office Report see it similarly, with Box Office Pro projecting $12 million and Box Office Report projecting $11.5 million. 
The next new release is Action Point, an action-comedy about a wild amusement park starring Johnny Knoxville. It’s a combination of Jackass and a live-action comedy. It doesn’t have a score on Rotten Tomatoes, but I wouldn’t expect it to be high, or to matter much to the audience. This is a movie you go to if you’re looking for a little over-the-top fun. It’s priced at $143 FML Bucks, and Fantasy Movie League sees it at about $8.2 million. Box Office Pro projects only $5.2 million and Box Office Report sees only $4.7 million, so that makes Action Point a shaky bet in the cineplex.
The final new release is the sci-fi action film Upgrade, which has a ridiculous premise and is headed by Logan Marshall-Green. But, surprisingly, it’s been a hit with critics. It currently boasts an 84 percent critical score on Rotten Tomatoes. It’s priced at $62 FML Bucks, and Fantasy Movie League sees it at about $2.8 million. Box Office Pro sees it the same at $2.8 million, while Box Office Report sees it at $3.8 million. It could be a value if it skews to the higher end of projections.

The Search for the Best Value:

What to make of Solo. The film underwhelmed last week, and is still the most expensive entry this week at $514 FML Bucks. But it’s projected at $37.3 million by Fantasy Movie League, and only $28 million for Box Office Pro and $31 million for Box Office Report. That makes it a stay away for me, especially considering Deadpool 2 is only $325 FML Bucks and projected at $20 to $21 million. But I’m not sure either is the right anchor this week.

When the movies at the top (and I’m including Adrift here) don’t seem like great values, it can be a chance to load up on middle priced films that could get you big bonus scores. Avengers is $167 FML Bucks, fourth most for the week, but it carries strong projections. Fantasy Movie League projected $8.6 million, but they are the lowest. Box Office Pro calls for $9.2 million and Box Office Report sees $10.2 million. That could make it a value candidate. Another potential value is Book Club, which appeals to an underserved demographic during the summer. It’s $126 FML Bucks, but carries projections around $6 to $7 million, meaning it might hold up value better than things around it.

This Week’s Lineup:

Given the uncertainty around the movies at the top, and their cost, I’m going with some lower end options this week looking for value.

Avengers: Infinity War x4
Book Club x2
Life of the Party
Overboard

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