Fantasy Movie League — Solo brings his story to the Box Office


We’ve reached Memorial Day Weekend, the unofficial start of summer. School is out (for most), the days are warm (for most) and barbecues are plentiful. It’s also a time for big tent poles at the Box Office, which is true of 2018 as well with the release of Solo: A Star Wars Story. The production was fraught, and this is the first of the new Star Wars films to jump out of December into summer, so it’s fair to have some questions. But it’s still a Star Wars movie, so it’ll be huge. More on that in a minute.

Last week we all knew Deadpool 2, which was in daily scoring, would be the top of the Box Office heap, but the question was what would be the Best Value. I bet on counter-programming and went with a lady — specifically Melissa McCarthy and Life of the Party. And that one did OK. But the real stars of the show were the ladies of Book Club, which took the Best Value and led the way, alongside a screen of Deadpool 2, to the top of the Fantasy Movie League heap. So better luck to me this week.

Solo: A Star Wars Story isn’t just the biggest movie of the week, it’s the biggest question. In terms of the game, it’s how to play it. Solo is in daily scoring, and since it’s a holiday weekend, that means four days to chose from. Let’s dive in.

New at the Box Office:

There is but one new movie this week, and it accounts for four new entries in this week’s game. (The fifth “new” entry is just Deadpool 2 as one whole unit.) Solo: A Star Wars Story has been hotly anticpated. The production was troubled, leading to the original directors Phil Lord and Christopher Miller leaving mid-production and being replaced by Ron Howard. That’s never good, and it’s fair to wonder what that will mean for the finished film. The movie boasts a 71 percent Critical Score on Rotten Tomatoes. It’s not great, but likely not nearly enough to keep people away from the film. Box Office estimates are solid, but not incredible. Box Office Report was more bullish with $146 million, while Box Office Pro sees it at $133 million for the four-day run.

Fantasy Movie League has it in daily scoring. Friday is the most costly at $587 FML Bucks, with Saturday at $371, Sunday at $334 and Monday at $271. None of the four is the highest of the week — that belongs to Deadpool 2 at $680 FML Bucks. And that’s because projections for the four days are modest. The projection is $50.2 for Friday (including Thursday screenings), $39.7 for Saturday, $35 for Sunday and $26.4 for the Monday holiday. That makes it an interesting challenge to see what the best anchor combination is.

The Search for the Best Value:

As noted above, Deadpool 2 is the most expensive and carries the best solo projection at $55 million from Fantasy Movie League. But other sites are more bullish. Box Office Pro projects $66 million, while Box Office Report sees $63 million. That could make it a solid anchor option, but it comes at a cost.

Among the other possibilities are more counter-programming. Last week’s gem, Book Club, is reasonably priced at $133 FML Bucks and is projected between $11 and $13 million. That could make it a value. Also a possible value is Life of the Party, which is just $57 FML Bucks and projected between $5 and $6 million.

This Week’s Lineup:

This is a week where there are a lot of options, and a lot of possibilities. I think Sunday’s numbers for Solo could make it a value, and I’m going back to the well with Melissa McCarthy.

Solo: A Star Wars Story Sunday x2
Life of the Party x5
Overboard

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