Fantasy Movie League, a Box Office heist

Well, the first week of the summer competition, much like the actual Box Office, was a deflating experience. Three new movies opened — Adrift, Action Point and Upgraded — and none of them made a big splash, while holdovers like Solo: A Star Wars Story and Deadpool 2 just did all right. As predicted, it was hard to know what to choose at the Box Office.

I went with Avengers x4, Book Club x2, Life of the Party and Overboard, hoping that the smaller films would provide value. Instead, Rampage was the Best Value, Upgraded was a better filler option and Deadpool 2 x2 was the right anchor. So I started off summer in a slump, which means I need to push even harder the next 12 weeks to catch up.

This week we have three more new films entering the fray, including one — Ocean’s 8 — that figures to land the top spot at the Box Office. But is it the right anchor? Let’s discuss.

New at the Box Office:

It would be harder to find a bigger new film this week than Ocean’s 8, not only because it is a female-centric spin-off of the successful Ocean’s 11 franchise, but because it boasts an incredible cast. Sandra Bullock, Cate Blanchett, Anne Hathaway and Rhianna, among others, lead this cast. And it’s been well received by critics, too, boasting a 78 percent critical score on Rotten Tomatoes. The film has the highest cost at $626 FML Bucks, and it’s easily projected at No. 1 this weekend. Fantasy Movie League projects it the highest with $42.6 million, while Box Office Pro projects $41 million and Box Office Report projects $39 million. Given its cost and projections, that could make it a rough anchor at the Box Office.

The second biggest film opening is Hereditary, a new horror film starring Toni Collette and Gabriel Byrne. It looks sufficiently creepy, and it boasts an outstanding 94 percent critical score on Rotten Tomatoes. It costs $219 FML Bucks, second most of the week, but that doesn’t line up with its projections. Fantasy Movie League projects $11.4 million, fourth most at the Box Office, while Box Office Pro projects $9.6 million and Box Office Report projects $10 million.

The final new opening is Hotel Artemis, a dark action thriller starring Jodie Foster, Sterling K. Brown and Jeff Goldbulm. The film boasts a solid 74 percent critical score on Rotten Tomatoes. The film costs only $138 FML Bucks, but it doesn’t come with strong projections. Fantasy Movie League sees $5 million and Box Office Report sees $4.7 million, but Box Office Pro projects just $2.5 million. That makes it a dicey proposition to bet on in your Cineplex.

The Search for the Best Value:

June has offered six new releases in two weeks, but none of them have been great for your Fantasy Movie League competition. Last week’s top release, Adrift, was solid but not a great value. This week it’s just $89 FML Bucks, but carries middling projections around $6 million. It could be good as filler.

Of the new releases, Ocean’s 8 is the most likely to return value, but its cost is more than $400 FML Bucks above everything else, so it would have to return more than double the value to be efficient. I don’t love it as an anchor. Instead, I’m again looking at Solo, at $218 FML Bucks with projections between $14 and $15 million, and Deadpool 2, at $201 FML Bucks, with projections between $12.5 and $13.5 million. Also intriguing is Book Club, which comes in at $67 FML Bucks and holds projections around $5 million. It seems to be a steady performer that could provide value.

This Week’s Lineup:

There’s a temptation to play Solo, but it has let me down nearly every week. I think Deadpool 2 seems to hold better potential value as an anchor.

Deadpool 2 x4

Book Club x2

Life of the Party x2