Fantasy Movie League: Mamma Mia! is back, here we go again


Well, like so many weeks in this game, last weekend was a mixed bag for me. I suggested Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom could provide good value, and it did, in fact, provide the Best Value. So that felt like a win. There was also a strong showing from Three Identical Strangers on the lower end, a film I used in my Cineplex.

However, I thought the modest projections for Skyscraper, the latest from Dwayne Johnson, were wrong. Turns out they were. They were too high. So that didn’t really work out for me. I played a Cineplex of Skyscraper, Jurassic World x2, Sorry to Bother You x3, and Three Identical Strangers x2. It did pretty well. But the winner, and Perfect Cineplex, was Jurassic World x5, Sicario x2 and Uncle Drew. So close, but not close enough.

Remember you can go head-to-head with me each week by joining the Fantasy Life App Blog league here. This week the quest for perfection continues as four new films enter the competition. On to this week’s Box Office!

New at the Box Office:

As I mentioned, there are four new films this week. The biggest of which is Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again, the sequel to the 2008 theatrical adaptation of the popular musical. This one brings everyone back (though it appears Meryl Streep is in a more limited capacity) and adds some new folks, including Lily James and Cher. It is the most expensive film in the game at $526 FML Bucks, and Fantasy Movie League projects $33.5 million to lead the weekend. That’s low in comparison, as Box Office Pro projects $38 million and Box Office Report projects $40 million. That would be quite a tick up from the original, which brought in $27.7 million on its opening weekend. The film does boast an 85 percent critical score on Rotten Tomatoes, so it’s been well received. If it hits that higher number, it could provide good anchor value.
The second biggest opening is yet another sequel, Equalizer 2. This action film starring Denzel Washington and coming from director Antoine Fuqua is the second most expensive in the game at $403 FML Bucks. But it has an abysmal 40 percent critical score on Rotten Tomatoes. The question is whether that even matters. This year we’ve seen movies like this that aim at the demographic like this best its projections, so it’s possible. Fantasy Movie League projects $26.8 million, Box Office Pro projects $28.5 million and Box Office Report projects $30 million. Again, if it bests projections, it could provide some value.
The next biggest opening is Unfriended: The Dark Web which is, yes, another sequel. If you’re looking for originality, this isn’t the week. This low-budget horror film costs $103 FML Bucks, which is middle of the pack, but surprisingly boasts a 60 percent critical score on Rotten Tomatoes. Horror movies like this are cheap, and usually profitable. Fantasy Movie League projects $5.1 million, but Box Office Report projects just $4.1 million, barely in the Top 10. This would have to return big value to be worth it.
The final new film in the game is Leave No Trace, a smaller independent film that’s in limited release. The film costs just $23 FML Bucks, but boasts a ridiculous 100 percent on Rotten Tomatoes. It has a modest projection of $1.1 million from Fantasy Movie League, so it’s little more than a low-end filler.

The Search for the Best Value:

Last week, Jurassic World roared to the top of the value heap. This week it costs $135 FML Bucks, but it’s projected around $10 million. It’s in the middle of a pack where it would have to really jump those projections to return a good value. The film that actually seems more intriguing is Ant-Man and The Wasp, which has benefited from good word-of-mouth and is modestly priced at $210 FML Bucks. It boasts projections between $15 and $16 million, giving it a good chance to be a high-quality anchor.

A couple other movies on the lower end have been close to high value the past couple weeks. The First Purge is $61 FML Bucks and was in the top group in value last week, while Sicario is just $29 FML Bucks and was Top 5 in value last week. Both are intriguing as screen filler.

This Week’s Lineup:

I am betting on Ant-Man and The Wasp to provide the best value as an anchor this week.

Ant-Man and The Wasp x4
The First Purge
Sicario: Day of the Soldado x3

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