Fantasy Movie League: Will Crazy Rich Asians dominate again?


Well, last weekend was interesting. It seemed like The Meg was a strong choice for anchor. But it wasn’t. And it seemed like Alpha was an after thought. But it wasn’t. Fortunately I ended up with both options in my Cineplex.

I had The Meg x2, plus Alpha and some filler. It wasn’t terrible, as Alpha was the Best Value. But it was far from perfect. That belonged to the Cineplex that used Crazy Rich Asians — which bested projections — as an anchor, and added Alpha x7. Those bonuses really put that option way over the top. So I missed on that one, but it’s time to turn the page to another week as the summer draws to a close.

If you think you’re better at the game than me (and it wouldn’t be hard), I encourage you to join me in a Fantasy Life App Blog league! You can join the league here. This week there’s only two new entries to the game, and neither is generating a lot of buzz. Welcome to the late summer doldrums.

New at the Box Office:

As I noted, there’s two new films this week. The biggest of them is The Happytime Murders. If you’ve longed to see Melissa McCarthy unfiltered starring alongside puppets, well this is for you. But I’m guessing most of us haven’t had this dream, and for critics this final product was more akin to a nightmare. The film boasts a lowly 25 percent critical score on Rotten Tomatoes, and it hasn’t had a lot of buzz either. The film is the second most expensive option at $264 FML Bucks, and Fantasy Movie League projects a second place finish with $14.8 million. But they’re the highest. Box Office Pro projects $14 million, while Box Office Report projects just $12.8 million. It’s a gamble as an anchor unless you think a whole lot of Team America/Avenue Q fans are about to come out of the woodwork to flock to this film. 
The other new offering is the tale of a boy and his robot dog. A.X.L. hasn’t generated a lot of buzz (I go to the movies weekly and haven’t seen a single trailer), and it doesn’t have a score on Rotten Tomatoes. It’s just $58 FML Bucks, but no one is expecting much bang at the Box Office. Fantasy Movie League projects $2.1 million, while Box Office Pro projects only $1.7 million. Box Office Report is the most bullish with $3.3 million, but this seems like a gamble even as Box Office filler.

The Search for the Best Value:

Last weekend Crazy Rich Asians was not only the top of the Box Office, it outpaced all projections. And it’s continued to be strong throughout the first week in release. It’s the most expensive option at $318 FML Bucks, and Fantasy Movie League projects it with $16.9 million in first place. But they’re the lowest on the film. Box Office Pro calls for $17.5 million, and Box Office Report goes as high s $20 million. Given its cost, and the fact it’s got incredible word of mouth and no competition, it has to be the premier choice at anchor.

Among other values, The Meg continues to be solid. This week it’s projected at $12.7 million by Box Office Pro and $12.8 million for Box Office Report — both higher than the $11.2 million for Fantasy Movie League — and boasts a cost of just $201 FML Bucks. Last week Alpha was the value, but it’s now $102 FML Bucks and boasts projections behind Christopher Robin, which is just $106 FML Bucks and was sneakily the third highest performer last week. Also of interest is BlacKkKlansman, which is just $84 FML Bucks and has projections between $5 and $6 million.

This Week’s Lineup:

I think Crazy Rich Asians and The Meg remain strong, and I like the value of Christopher Robin.

Crazy Rich Asians
The Meg
Christopher Robin x4
The Incredibles x2

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