Fantasy Movie League: Johnny English is back...


Well, Halloween returned to theaters last weekend and was, indeed, the biggest film. The question in daily scoring was which day would provide value. I bet on Saturday, but Friday was the better option.

However, I noted Old Man and the Gun was likely to have a good shot at Best Value. And it did, indeed, capture Best Value. But thanks to banking on the wrong day of Halloween, and Venom not quite living up to expectation, I didn’t get high enough to be the Perfect Cineplex. My instincts were solid, but in fantasy sometimes it doesn’t quite pan out. (David Johnson fans are nodding their heads sadly right now.)

This week four new films join the game, and none of them looks all that special. That’s fine, because we still have all these giant October releases out there for us to enjoy. And as always, if you think you’re better at the game than me, I encourage you to join me in a Fantasy Life App Blog league! You can join the league here. Let’s see how this week stacks up.

New at the Box Office:

Have you ever wanted to see Gerard Butler re-make Crimson Tide? Well, if so, you’re sort of in luck. Sure, this isn’t a re-make of Crimson Tide, but Hunter Killer does give you Butler in command of a nuclear submarine as we clash with Russia. It’s got action, adventure, drama and plenty of Butler. It boasts just a 31 percent on Rotten Tomatoes, but that doesn’t feel like a giant surprise. It is, however, a film whose ad campaign seemingly came out of nowhere a couple weeks ago. So it’s hard to say if it will really find an audience. It’s only $202 FML Bucks, third most in the game, but has modest projections. Fantasy Movie League sees $10.2 million, while Box Office Pro calls for $8.8 million and Box Office Report calls for $8.3 million. It seems like a bad bet in the game.
The next biggest release is Johnny English Strikes Again, featuring Rowan Atkinson again as the titular James Bond-light English spy. It, too, has been woefully received by critics. It currently has a 37 percent on Rotten Tomatoes, which isn’t that surprising. More curious to me is, though it’s a wide release, it’s priced at just $33 FML Bucks, and Fantasy Movie League sees just $1.3 million. I thought it was a value contender, but Box Office Report is right in line with a projection of $1.5 million, which must be an indication that tracking shows little enthusiasm for this film. That makes is a curious case in the game.
The next new release is Mid-90s, the indie gem from director Jonah Hill. It’s been in limited release and getting an expansion, and has an 80 percent critical score on Rotten Tomatoes. It’s priced at $88 FML Bucks and carries projections around $3.8 million. That makes it an intriguing, but unexciting, option to fill out a Cineplex.
The final new entry is Indivisible, a Christian film that reunites Sarah Drew and Justin Bruening, who were a couple last season on Grey’s Anatomy. Hard to know if the audience will cross over, but that might be appealing to the female demographic. The film is $39 FML Bucks and projected at $1 million. It’s a stay away for me.

The Search for the Best Value:

Halloween is again likely to top the Box Office, and has returned to single option scoring. The people at Fantasy Movie League had fun with it, too, pricing it at $666 FML Bucks. The film is more than $400 above any other option, but its projections have it more than $20 million out in front, too, which makes sense given the Box Office and the proximity to its titular holiday. Projections suggest between $33 and $37 million, but it could end up above that number. But would it be enough to return value at its cost?

A Star is Born and Venom, two films going into their fourth weeks in release, also continue to offer value, as both are projected in the Top 3 this weekend. A Star is Born is the second highest costing film at $243 FML Bucks, carrying projections from $13 to $14 million, while Venom is $201, one below Hunter Killer, and carries projections between $10 and $11 million. It was close to Best Value last week, and could pull off the feat with a solid return this weekend.

Among lower films, Smallfoot’s numbers look good, and it hits that animated void, but it’s hard to know if the re-issue of Disney’s Coco into theaters will impact those audiences. 

This Week’s Lineup:

I still like Venom to be a value, so I’m riding it on a toss up weekend. I also still can’t get over the feeling something is screwy with the Johnny English numbers.

Venom x4
First Man
Johnny English Strikes Again x3

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