Fantasy Movie League: Queen versus the Nutcracker


We’ve reached November, a magical time where we get big event films, movies for the holidays and a smattering of other releases. This week exemplifies that with new releases in all three categories. But more on that in a minute.

First about last week. Well, I didn’t believe in Hunter Killer, and that was good. It bombed. I believed too much in Venom, which did well but not quite well enough. And I whiffed on what would be a good low-end value. Johnny English wasn’t, but The House With a Clock in its Walls was. So, it wasn’t a great week. I’ve been in a funk of late, and hopefully I can make my way out of it, and quickly.

There are four new films joining the competition this week, including three wide releases. Time to figure out where the value lies. And as always, if you think you’re better at the game than me, I encourage you to join me in a Fantasy Life App Blog league! You can join the league here. Let’s see how this week stacks up.

New at the Box Office:

There are four new films in the game, the biggest of which is the Queen biopic starring Rami Malek Bohemian Rhapsody. It’s been part of an intense marketing campaign, and is expected to draw a crowd. Reviews have been mixed, with the film gathering a 58 percent critical score on Rotten Tomatoes. But I don’t think that will be an opening weekend problem, more of a future Box Office question. It’s priced at $510 FML Bucks, most for the week, and projected in first place. Fantasy Movie League projects $31.8 million. HOWEVER, they are by far the lowest. Box Office Pro calls for $40.7 million and Box Office Report calls for $44.5 million. So there could be some value here as an anchor.
The next biggest release is The Nutcracker and the Four Realms. This Disney holiday release has been part of a year-long marketing campaign. But all that can’t cover up the fact it’s been savaged by critics with a 31 percent on Rotten Tomatoes. That likely won’t deter the core audience, and Christmas-themed fare always draws somewhat of a crowd, but it can’t help the film’s case. It’s priced at $260 FML Bucks, second most, which is in line with projections to be second at the Box Office. Fantasy Movie League projects $19.4 million, while Box Office Pro projects $19.5 million. Box Office Report, meanwhile, sees only $18.3 million. Hard to see this one as a good value in the game, or for Disney.
The final new wide release is the family comedy Nobody’s Fool, starring Tiffany Haddish. It doesn’t have a Rotten Tomatoes score yet, but I’d imagine it will be low. And given all the Box Office options, this figures to slide under the radar a bit. It’s priced at $180 FML Bucks, and Fantasy Movie League projects $13.8 million. Box Office Pro is more bullish at $14.5 million, while Box Office Report calls for third place and $15.7 million. So it, too, could be a value.
The final new entry is the horror re-make Suspiria, starring Dakota Johnson and Tilda Swinton. It boasts just a 65 percent critical score and is still limited in release. I think it will will fade a bit, especially considering we’re past Halloween and on to Christmas. It’s priced at $31 FML Bucks and projected around $2 million by Fantasy Movie League and Box Office Report.

The Search for the Best Value:

The past two weeks Michael Myers has dominated at the Box Office, but will his reign end now that his titular holiday has passed? Fantasy Movie League priced Halloween at $201 FML Bucks, third most in the game, and projects it in third at $14 million. Box Office Report agrees, while Box Office Pro sees $15.7 million. The disparity between Halloween and Nobody’s Fool on Bow Office Pro and Box Office Report means one will have value, but which one? Which site do you trust more?

Last week A Star is Born was the best anchor option, and it continues to roll strong at the Box Office. It’s projected between $9 and $10 million everywhere. And at $127 FML Bucks, it holds some mid-range appeal.

This Week’s Lineup:

Bohemian Rhapsody looks like a potential Best Value because of the disparity in projections and its modest pricing. I’m taking my shot.

Bohemian Rhapsody
A Star is Born x3
Suspiria x2
Mid-90s x2

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