Fantasy Movie League: Aquaman still reigns


Here we are in the first full week in January, and we’re finally about to get a slate of new releases. In fact, there are five new options in the game this week, so that’s something to get excited about if you’ve been craving different options. And yet, it’s possible we still have the same film at the top. But more on that in a minute.

Last week I thought Bumblebee looked like some potentially great value, and a solid anchor choice. It wasn’t. Instead, Escape Room exploded and was the best option to top a Cineplex. So let’s just say I was pretty far off the mark there. I’ll try to do better this week, and at least the pool of options expands a bit.

As I said, we have five new movies in the game. That includes a few new wide releases, and a couple of indie awards movies getting some expansion. As always, if you think you’re better at the game than me, I encourage you to join me in a Fantasy Life App Blog league! You can join the league here. Let’s see how this week stacks up.

New at the Box Office

The biggest new release is The Upside, which stars Kevin Hart, Bryan Cranston and Nicole Kidman. That’s a pretty star-studded cast, and of course it’s a story that tugs at the heart strings. It could be a pretty decent release, especially for January. That, of course, assumes that some of the controversy dogging Hart doesn’t impact the film. The film only has a 43 percent critical score on Rotten Tomatoes, so that gives me a little pause. This is the kind of film where reviews might matter, and this indicates the film might not be as delightful as the trailers lead us to believe. At $188 FML Bucks it’s the third most costly in the game, and it’s projected in third place with just $11.8 million by Fantasy Movie League. But they are the lowest, with Box Office Pro projecting $12.5 million and Box Office Report going as high as $16 million and second place. So there could be some potential value there if you lean toward the higher projection.
The next biggest release is A Dog’s Way Home, which is a warm, fuzzy animal film that will likely attract the family-friendly crowd. It doesn’t have a Rotten Tomatoes score, but that hardly matters for this kind of film. It costs $207 FML Bucks, which is second most in the game. It’s projected at $12.8 million by Fantasy Movie League, but they’re again the lowest. Box Office Pro sees $14.5 million and Box Office Report sees $13.3 million. It doesn’t have the upside of other options, but might be a more stable bet for value based on projections.
The next new release is On the Basis of Sex, the biopic on Ruth Bader Ginsburg. It’s been a big stretch for Ginsburg, who was the subject of the documentary RBG in 2018 and now gets a biopic of her most famous case starring Felicity Jones. This one seems like awards season bait, but it has a middling 71 percent on Rotten Tomatoes. Given its political subject, that could limit the potential audience, too. It’s $135 FML Bucks, and they project it middle of the pack at $7.9 million. That’s on par with Box Office Report ($7.8 million), so it’s not a great bet for value.
The final new release is Replicas, the science fiction story of a guy named Keanu Reeves engaging in some light human cloning. What could go wrong? This one also doesn’t have a Rotten Tomatoes score, but I’m going to go ahead and assume it will be real low. The film doesn’t look great, and it’s hard to say what kind of audience there is for this. Obviously the powers that be feel the same way. Replicas is just $58 FML Bucks and projected at $3.4 million. Box Office Report is a touch higher at $4.3 million, but this doesn’t feel like a home run value pick.
The final new entry in the game is the award nominee If Beale Street Could Talk. It’s a favorite to end up among the Best Picture nominees, it comes from writer James Baldwin and it just picked up a Golden Globe for Regina King. So it will draw the award crowd. And it boasts an outstanding 94 percent on Rotten Tomatoes, and it started expanding last weekend ahead of the Golden Globes. It’s priced at $55 FML Bucks and projected at $3.6 million. Box Office Report goes lower at just $3 million, so this feels like a kind of stay away option.

The Search for the Best Value

We’re a few weekend in, and Aquaman continues to shine. It has broad appeal as a comic book movie for male audiences and a showcase for the physique of star Jason Momoa for female audiences. And it’s a film that’s had staying power both here and overseas. It’s the most expensive option in the game at $269 FML Bucks, but it’s again projected at the top of the Box Office. Fanatasy Movie League calls for $17.7 million. But they’re the lowest. Box Office Pro sees $19.5 million and Box Office Report goes as high as $20 million. This one feels like it’s filling the role Jumanji did last winter.

We could also see a bump for another superhero tale, Spider-Man Into the Spider-Verse, which won as best animated feature at the Golden Globes. It costs $127 FML Bucks, and is projected at $8.7 million by Fantasy Movie League. Box Office Pro sees $8.9 million and Box Office Report sees $9.7 million, so there’s some potential value in the film.

This Week’s Lineup

I like Aquaman’s potential value, but I think The Upside could potentially have more. And people love a feel-good story.

The Upside x4
Spider-Man Into the Spider-Verse
Second Act x2
Ralph Breaks the Internet

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