Fantasy Movie League: A New King Arthur


Last week was a rough one at the Box Office. Glass was the big new release, and was split into daily scoring. I noted that Fantasy Movie League was the highest in projections, making me weary, and that turned out to be wise. Glass underperformed all projections, and wasn’t a good value in the Cineplex.

I thought The Upside looked like a potential value, and used it as an anchor across three screens. It was the right anchor, and performed well. But the Perfect Cineplex had The Upside on two screens and the Best Performer, Dragon Super Ball: Broly, across the other six. So I missed the mark, in part because I don’t know enough about Dragon Super Ball with made almost $12 million last week.

This week there are only two new entry into the game, and neither is projected to be anything special. In fact, Glass is again projected at the top of the Box Office. But is it the best option for your Cineplex? That remains to be seen. As always, if you think you’re better at the game than me, I encourage you to join me in a Fantasy Life App Blog league! You can join the league here. Let’s see how this week stacks up.

New at the Box Office:

The biggest new release is The Kid Who Would Be King, which is a modern take on King Arthur. It centers on a shy kid who finds Excalibur and becomes the king of legend, complete with Merlin (Patrick Stewart) at his side. It’s drawn a great 86 percent critical score on Rotten Tomatoes, and it’s been part of an aggressive marketing campaign the past few months. That and its family-friendly nature could bring audiences out (though preview screenings of the Lego Movie 2 on Saturday could eat into that market). The film is $204 FML bucks and projected at $10.8 million by Fantasy Movie League, which lines up with it being the second most expensive in the game. But they’re the highest. Box Office Pro projects just $10 million, while Box Office Report projects $9.5 million, and both see it behind The Upside. 
The other new entry to the game is Serenity, which stars Matthew McCounaghey and Anne Hathaway. That could give it some appeal, but it’s 29 percent critical score and confusing trailer will probably keep most audiences away. The film costs $105 FML Bucks and is projected at $5.1 million by Fantasy Movie League. That seems like a poor bet. HOWEVER, they are the lowest. Box Office Pro projects $5.5 million and Box Office Report projects $6.7 million. As unlikely as it may seem, that could give Serenity some value appeal.

The Search for the Best Value

Glass is again the most expensive option, at $337 FML Bucks, and is projected at the top of the Box Office. Fantasy Movie League projects $19.5 million, while Box Office Report sees $18 million and Box Office Pro sees only $17.4 million. With poor reviews and word of mouth, I wouldn’t be surprised to see it dip below projections again. Frankly, this is a stay away for me.

The Upside is a movie that has held up well, and at $183 FML Bucks it’s the third most costly option. Fantasy Movie League projected just $9.8 million, but Box Office Report sees $10.2 million and Box Office Pro sees $10.8 million. It’s not great, but the stability of projections and relative cost give it more appeal as an anchor. Also appealing could be some of the lower tier Best Picture nominees, like The Favourite, that figure to get a Box Office boost this weekend.

This Week’s Lineup

I still like The Upside as an anchor, and while I think Serenity could be a value, I like the projection potential of Spider-Man just a bit more. And Bohemian Rhapsody is my pick for Oscar nominee that gets a boost.

The Upside x3
Spider-Man Into the Spider-Verse x3
Bohemian Rhapsody x2

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