Fantasy Movie League: Captain Marvel still reigns


Last week the latest superhero in the Marvel Cinematic Universe, Captain Marvel, made her debut. It was the biggest opening of 2019 so far, and it dominated the Box Office. In fact, those that picked the Saturday option found themselves with the best anchor.

I went with Friday (close to Best Value) and Sunday, then bet on Green Book as a bit of counter programming. Instead, it was Greta that returned Best Value for the buck, and a double helping of Saturday’s option for Captain Marvel sealed the Perfect Cineplex. Mine was good, but not good enough. Fortunately, I get another bite at the apple.

There are four new films in the game this week, but none is projected to come close to first place. So Captain Marvel remains in daily scoring, creating a fun challenge for those of us playing at home. As always, if you think you’re better at the game than me, I encourage you to join me in a Fantasy Life App Blog league! You can join the league here. Let’s see how this week stacks up.

New at the Box Office:

The biggest of the four new films is Wonder Park, the animated feature. It’s been a big year for quality animated films, and the trailer for this one looked promising. Apparently looks can be deceiving. The film boasts just a 27 percent critical score on Rotten Tomatoes, so the buzz is certainly cooling. The film is $146 FML Bucks, fifth highest in the game, and it is projected a distant second place at the Box Office. Fantasy Movie League actually has it in third this weekend with $10.3 million. They’re the lowest. Box Office Pro sees second place and $12 million, while Box Office Report sees $11.3 and second place. So it could provide a little value on the return. 
The next biggest release is Five Feet Apart, which is both the title of this new teen romance and how far away from the theater most of us will want to remain. This isn’t a genre reliant on good critical reviews, but a 29 percent score really indicates this is kind of a shabbily made attempt. Likely the core audience will turn out, but how big of an audience will that be? Well Fantasy Movie League priced it at $155 FML Bucks, highest of any new entry, and has it projected in second place at $10.7 million for the weekend. But they’re overly optimistic compared to their peers. Box Office Pro sees a relatively close $10.4 million, but third place, while Box Office Report goes even lower with $9 million and fourth place. Feels like a stay away.
Next up is Captive State, a thriller involving aliens and John Goodman. I watched the trailer three times and I’m still not sure what to make of this film. That doesn’t seem great. The film doesn’t have a critical score yet, either, meaning it’s been withheld from critics. That doesn’t always spell doom, but usually it’s a grim sign. The movie, despite the cast, has almost no hype. Box Office Pro noted, “Despite the wide release from Focus Features, Captive State‘s general awareness among audiences isn’t particularly high at this stage, increasing its reliance upon word of mouth going forward.” So, yeah, not a great bet this weekend. It’s priced at $57 FML Bucks, lowest of the new releases, and Fantasy Movie League projects just $2.8 million. BUT, Box Office Pro projects $5 million and Box Office Report sees $4.3 million, making it a sneaky Best Value candidate.
The final new release is No Manches Frida 2, which I believe is some kind of foreign film sequel. It isn’t being released where I live, so I’m not sure how wide of a release it’s really getting. It’s priced at $63 FML Bucks and has no score on Rotten Tomatoes. Fantasy Movie League projects $3.4 million, Box Office Report projects $3.5 million. No projection or mention by Box Office Pro, so play it at your own risk.

The Search for the Best Value:

With Captain Marvel in daily scoring again, it’s likely got to be a part of your Cineplex. Box Office Pro sees $71.5 million, while Box Office Report sees $73 million for the weekend. You’ll need some of that in your Cineplex. The costs for this week range from $375 (Saturday) to $251 (Friday), with Sunday in the middle at $278. Friday won’t benefit from preview screenings, but many areas are already going out on Spring Break, so Friday might not present as big an impediment. Fantasy Movie League projects $31.3 million on Saturday, $22.3 on Friday and $17.8 on Sunday. All together that’s $71.4 total, so about on par with other projections. That makes me believe Sunday is a bad bet, so it’s a matter of how you feel about Friday and Saturday, and what other swings you want to take.

This Week’s Lineup:

I’m taking a shot with movies I think pose the best shot at Best Value.

Captain Marvel Friday x2
Wonder Park x2
Captive State x3
Lego Movie 2

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