Fantasy Movie League: Aladdin Brings Box Office Magic


Last week it seemed clear that John Wick: Chapter 3 — Parabellum was poised to unseat the Avengers at the top of the Box Office. It did just that, racking up more than $56 million. It also looked like it had the potential to be the Best Value. It wasn’t.

That Best Value instead when to Shazam! on the lower end. Meanwhile I thought The Sun is Also A Star might have some value. But it didn’t. It flopped with $2.5 million and was near the bottom of the value list. So I missed the mark with my Cineplex, again ending $30 million off the Perfect Cineplex Pace thanks to bonuses. Hopefully this week I can get back on track.

This is Memorial Day Weekend, meaning a four-day Box Office haul. And there are three new films, but the biggest by far is the live-action re-make of Aladdin, coming from director Guy Ritchie. And it’s in daily scoring, sort of, but will it carry your Cineplex? Let’s find out. As always, if you think you’re better at the game than me, I encourage you to join me in a Fantasy Life App Blog league! You can join the league here. On to this week’s competition.

New at the Box Office:

The biggest new release is Aladdin, which figures to easily nab the top spot at the Box Office this weekend. It has a familiar story, comes from Ritchie and stars Will Smith as the genie. But it didn’t do that well with critics, so far rating just 59 percent on Rotten Tomatoes. The film is in daily scoring, of sorts. It’s not across four days, but rather two blocks of two days each. The first is Friday-Saturday for $501 FML Bucks and then Sunday-Monday for $402 FML Bucks. Fantasy Movie League projects $41.8 million for the first two days (including previews Thursday) and $33 million for the other two days.

Other sites offer just a full weekend projection. Box Office Pro sees $75.7 million, while Box Office Report sees $88 million. So the projections offered by Fantasy Movie League are in line with the totals. The question is where folks head to the movie, and if a weekend of wild weather, graduations and holidays will have an impact on people’s availability. Also, is it possible that like so many big releases this year, and this summer, it will underwhelm? That’s the difficulty in figuring out whether Aladdin is a good anchor for your Cineplex.
The next biggest release is Brightburn, which comes from producer James Gunn (Guardians of the Galaxy) and is a superhero horror of sorts. It supposes a child like Superman came to earth but turned out to be evil. The film is a crisp 91-minutes, but it has a middling 62 percent on Rotten Tomatoes. And in a superhero saturated culture, this might be a somewhat tough sell. And the Box Office projections reveal that. The film is $143 FML Bucks and projected at $10.7 million, in fifth place, by Fantasy Movie League. Box Office Pro goes lower at $9 million, while Box Office Report goes high at $11.5 million. That means the variation in projections will tell the tale on its value, especially when considering the other new release.
That other new release is the indie comedy Booksmart, which has been called a female Superbad. It comes from director Oliva Wilde, and for a while had a 100 percent score on Rotten Tomatoes. As of Thursday morning, it still sat at 99 percent, which is pretty great. The film is $107 FML Bucks and projected at $8.6 million by Fantasy Movie League. However, Box Office Pro $10.3 million and a finish above Brightburn, while Box Office Report goes with $9 million. But its pricing could give it more value as a Cineplex option.

The Search for the Best Value:

Last week, John Wick blazed his way to the top, and nearly was the Best Value. How will he fare in Week 2? Well, Aladdin is projected to be the top finisher, but John Wick 3 is priced at $364 FML Bucks and projected at $27 million by Fantasy Movie League. Box Office Pro sees $29.7 million and Box Office Report sees $31 million. That makes me think that it could potentially hold value as an anchor, especially if it can beat out those projections and Aladdin slips a bit.

On the lower end, A Dog’s Journey has a higher projection on Box Office Pro and Box Office Report than Fantasy Movie League, and the same is true of Detective Pikachu, giving some options to consider.

This Week’s Lineup:

I’m gonna ride John Wick into a violent holiday weekend. I think there’s a chance Aladdin slumps a bit.

John Wick: Chapter 3 — Parabellum x2
A Dog’s Journey x4
The Hustle
Ugly Dolls

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