Fantasy Movie League: Godzilla returns


We’re at the end of May, and we’re getting to the heart of the remaining blockbuster season. Once we hit about Fourth of July weekend, the kind of summer spectacle you get begins to change. People are traveling. Back to school sales are beginning and the Box Office becomes a toss up. But we’re not there yet, and this weekend we get four new films in the game, one of which features the “King of the Monsters.” But more on that in a minute.

For the holiday weekend last week, Aladdin was the big release and was in daily scoring, of sorts. It was split between the first half of the weekend (Friday-Saturday) and the second half (Sunday-Monday). And I thought because of that, John Wick Chapter 3 might be the best anchor. It wasn’t. Aladdin exploded out of the gate, bringing in more than $100 million opening weekend. And it’s strong performance on Sunday and Monday were enough to create Best Value. So let’s just say I was a bit off the pace. Hopefully, like Godzilla, I can return to the top of the heap this week.

This week’s three new wide releases see a pair of monsters, and a monster musician, vying for Box Office supremacy. Oh, yeah, we’ve still got that street urchin turned prince drawing crowds, too. In other words, we’re in the midst of summer now and there’s a lot of big budget spectacle fighting for everyone’s time and dollars. As always, if you think you’re better at the game than me, I encourage you to join me in a Fantasy Life App Blog league! You can join the league here. On to this week’s competition.

New at the Box Office:

The biggest new release is Godzilla: King of the Monsters. In this one, Godzilla is kind of like the savior, as he’s released by the people of the world to, hopefully, beat back a hoard of other monsters threatening world domination. This one stars Vera Farmiga, Kyle Chandler and Eleven herself, Millie Bobby Brown. Godzilla films have been a mixed bag in recent years, but the cast and trailer had me hopeful here. The critical score of 44 percent does not. It’s the most expensive in the game at $636 FML Bucks, and will likely still draw a crowd. Everyone sees it atop the Box Office, with Fantasy Movie League projecting $58.7 million, Box Office Pro seeing $56 million and Box Office Report seeing $60 million. Still, it would need to outpace even the best projection to really have a shot at Best Value, unless the rest of the Box Office slumps badly. 
The next biggest release is Rocketman, the Elton John biopic starring Taron Egerton. It has done relatively well with critics, at 90 percent on rotten tomatoes. We saw another biopic, Bohemian Rhapsody, do quite well at the Box Office, but it’s hard to say if there will be the same appeal here. The movie also came out at a slower time of year and was more of a slow build to Box Office gold. So what will Rocketman do out of the gate? Well, thoughts are mixed. Fantasy Movie League priced it at $340 FML Bucks, third most, and projected it in second at $41.1 million. But they are by far the highest. Box Office Pro goes with $35 million, while Box Office Report sees only $29.5 million. I think this is a stay away opening week.
The third wide release is the horror movie Ma, which sees Octavia Spencer playing an unhinged woman that preys on teens that just want to drink and party. Horror films always seem to draw well, and this might be no exception. It’s got a middling critical score of 63 percent, but that won’t likely dissuade the target audience here. Fantasy Movie League projected it at $17.1 million and priced it at $201 FML Bucks. But they’re middle of the pack. Box Office Pro sees $19.9 million, while Box Office Report goes with just $15.5 million. So it’s tough to gauge the value here.
The final new entry is the Biggest Little Farm, a documentary that has been a hit with critics and audiences, earning a 91 percent critical score and 97 percent audience score. But this is real counter programming for the summer, and film not in wide release. It’s just $6 FML Bucks and projected at $615,000 by Fantasy Movie League. It’s a low-end filler. But boy does that piglet look cute…

The Search for the Best Value:

Aladdin drew a crowd last weekend, and with a strong audience score figures to keep packing in families. Absent an big animated feature, Aladdin really fills the family programming void to start the summer, and that means big Box Office bucks. This week it steps back to $455 FML Bucks, and comes off daily scoring. It’s still second most in the game, and Fantasy Movie League projects $40.3 million. Box Office Pro sees $40 million and Box Office Report sees $44.5 million. Given the volatility of Rocketman and the big cost variance for Godzilla, Aladdin might prove a better and more reliable anchor.

Another potential value could be Avengers: Endgame, the biggest movie of the year that keeps on churning. It is $84 FML Bucks, and Fantasy Movie League projected $8.8 million, but Box Office Pro sees $9.5 million and Box Office Report sees $9 million, so there could be some value to be had.

This Week’s Lineup:

I’m betting on Aladdin to still be the right anchor, and the Avengers to save my Box Office.

Aladdin
Avengers: Endgame x6
Booksmart

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