Fantasy Movie League: John Wick is Back!


For the first time since late April, Avengers: Endgame isn’t predicted to dominate the Box Office. That’s thanks to a little hero named John Wick, who is about to go for his third adventure. But more on that and the new movies of the week in a minute. First, a minute on last week’s contest.

Avengers was still projected atop the Box Office, but it was Pokemon Detective Pikachu that was in daily scoring. And Pikachu joined a host of other films that were new at the Box Office. I leaned into a Saturday play, adding Sunday and the potential for value from Long Shot and Tolkien. Turns out, the best value was The Intruder, and the best Pikachu option was Friday. So I ended up almost $30 million off the pace. Hopefully this week will be better.

John Wick Chapter 3 leads the new releases, and figures to lead the Box Office. There are three new films again this week, but nothing in Daily Scoring. So it’s about finding the right anchor, and the right shot at value. As always, if you think you’re better at the game than me, I encourage you to join me in a Fantasy Life App Blog league! You can join the league here. On to this week’s competition.

New at the Box Office:

John Wick Chapter 3 is not only expected to top the Box Office, it’s been a hit with critics. This is a sharp deviation from last week, when all the new movies bombed with critics, and subsequently bombed with audiences. By now we know what John Wick is as a franchise, and this third installment promises more of the same in a good way. It’s currently got a 92 percent critical score, too, which helps. It’s the most expensive option at $538 FML Bucks, and Fantasy Movie League projects it in first at $37.8 million. But they’re the lowest by far. Box Office Report sees $47.5 million and Box Office Pro goes as high as $52.5 million. This could be the rare anchor — and most costly option — that’s also the Best Value.
The next biggest new release is A Dog’s Journey, itself a sequel to A Dog’s Purpose. This one is another sloppy family tale about a re-incarnating dog. Dennis Quaid reprises his role, but this one is more focused on his granddaughter. Josh Gad again provides the voice of the dog. This one is $173 FML Bucks and projected in fourth place with $12.8 million. Box Office Report sees $11.8 million, but Box Office Pro only goes to $9 million. This seems like a rough bet for value.
The final new release is The Sun is Also a Star, the romance film that provides a little counter-balance at the Box Office. This will likely appeal to couples as a date movie, and teens in general. But it boasts a middling 54 percent on Rotten Tomatoes, which isn’t promising. It’s just $96 FML Bucks and projected at $5.5 million. Box Office Report sees $5.2 million and Box Office Pro sees $6 million, so this is just a low-end filler option.

The Search for the Best Value

After dominating for three weeks, Avengers: Endgame figures to slide back to second place. It’s just $378 FML Bucks, and Fantasy Movie League projects it just over $28 million. Box Office Pro goes to $36 million and Box Office Report goes to $30 million, but given its price and the projections for John Wick, it doesn’t feel like a great value. Maybe doubling up helps as an anchor, but if it’s on the low-end of projections that could hurt as much as help, and leaves little money to play with.

Most of the other projections on films seem in line with each other, too, so it’s hard to spot any that jump out as a value unless you have a strong gut feeling something is being overlooked.

This Week’s Lineup:

I’m thinking John Wick is the best anchor and best value.

John Wick Chapter 3
The Sun is Also A Star x3
Long Shot x3
Ugly Dolls


That’s it for this week. Disagree, have a comment, want to share your process with the world?

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

The Burial a courtroom drama with heart

Image
Willie Gary (Jamie Foxx) is a brash trial lawyer who is good at rallying a jury to his cause. Jeremiah O’Keefe (Tommy Lee Jones) is a quiet grandfather who is trying to ensure the business his family built remains viable after he’s gone. These two don’t appear to have much in common on the surface. But when they’re brought together by young lawyer Hal Dockins (Mamoudou Athie) brings them together, a connection is formed over their shared background of working hard to become self-made men. And it turned out that Willie was just who Jerry needed in his corner to win the fight of his life. The new Prime Video film The Burial, which opened in theaters October 6 and started streaming October 13, captures that trial against the Loewen Group that changed the course of their lives. The film is based on the true story and covers the trial, but more importantly captures the relationship between the men. The film plays out like a traditional courtroom drama. Foxx is solid as Willie Gary, while Ju...
Read more

Broncos Draft Targets

Image
  The NFL Draft is just a few days away. On April 25, the Denver Broncos will head into the draft in the midst of something of a rebuild. In the draft, the Broncos have the No. 12 pick in Round 1, then have a Third Round Pick, Fourth Round Pick, three Fifth Round Picks, a Sixth Round Pick, and a Seventh Round Pick. So, what might they be targeting? Let's dive in and look at possible positions. Quarterback : The team clearly needs a long-term quarterback. Jarrett Stidham and Ben DiNucci are there but the team could certainly use someone else. Could they move up for Drake Maye or J.J. McCarthy? Yes, they could. Will the take Bo Nix at 12? It's possible. Or will the Broncos wait until next off-season to make a move? Anything is in play for the Broncos in 2024, but quarterback is surely a need. Tight End: The team brought back Adam Trautman and still has Greg Dulcich, but it's still a need. Dulcich hasn't been able to get on the field and Trautman hasn't been great. Co...
Read more

Favorite Westerns, No. 43

Image
  Do you like a good Western? It's a classic genre in film and this year I've decided to look at some of my favorite Westerns. So, join me each Friday as I count down my favorite Westerns from No. 50 to No. 1. Rooster Cogburn : [ watching Mattie ford the river hanging on the back of her horse] By God. She reminds me of me. True Grit (1969) Starring : John Wayne, Kim Darby, Glen Campbell, Robert Duvall, and Dennis Hopper Director : Henry Hathaway About: This is the third straight week with a film from Wayne. As you might guess, we're not done. As I've mentioned, he sets a standard for the genre. Here, we seen him bring to life an iconic character. This one is based on a novel, and it has endured. He's great as Rooster Cogburn, so good that he got a sequel in the same character. But this is a later film in his career. This is a different, more grizzled Wayne. He's still quite good and this is a film that really has stood the test of time. It's not the only ve...
Read more