Fantasy Movie League: Annabelle finds a new haunt


Last week Toy Story 4 opened, and it figured to be one of the biggest of the summer. While it took the top spot at the Box Office, it fell short of many of the lofty heights that had been predicted, which left our Box Office projections upside down.

I had gone for max dollars, I thought, grabbing the Saturday and Sunday screening of Toy Story 4, even knowing I’d have to leave one screen open and absorb a penalty. But Saturday and Sunday weren’t great performers, and it was a swing and a miss in terms of finding rock solid value. While my Cineplex performed better than the most popular, it wasn’t perfect. That honor went to the people who correctly identified John Wick 3 as best value and loaded up. I only had Mr. Wick on one screen.

This week a pair of new films join the fray, while Toy Story 4 returns to single scoring. The question is what provides the best bang for your buck. Let’s dive in. As always, if you think you’re better at the game than me, I encourage you to join me in a Fantasy Life App Blog league! You can join the league here. On to this week’s competition.

New at the Box Office:

The biggest new release is the horror sequel from the Conjuring universe, Annabelle Comes Home. This isn’t the first time that creepy doll has headlined a film, but now it’s kind of a co-mingling of the main franchise and its spin-offs. And these films have typically done pretty well. This one has a sort of middling rating of 65 percent on Rotten Tomatoes. We’ve also seen franchise fatigue bring down the Box Office ceiling for sequels this summer. The film costs $319 FML Bucks, second most, which is in line with with projections. Fantasy Movie League sees it getting $27.4 million, while Box Office Pro sees $27 million and Box Office Report sees $24 million. Unless you think it bests the estimates, this feels like a tough bet for value.
The other new release this week is Yesterday, the musical romantic comedy about a down-on-his-luck singer who discovers he’s the only one that remembers the music of the Beatles and cashes in. It looks like a bit of fun, and possibly a good date movie. The reviews aren’t incredibly encouraging, as it has just a 66 percent on Rotten Tomatoes. However, this is probably the kind of film where reviews won’t take that big a bite out of potential audience. The film is $136 FML Bucks, third most, but Fantasy Movie League sees it in fourth place at $9.1 million. But Box Office Pro sees $10 million and Box Office Report sees $11.2 million, both having it in third place. The higher projections indicate it could return some value.

The Search for the Best Value:

Last week Toy Story 4 was in daily scoring, and it failed to generate a lot of value. This week it’s back as one option, and the most expensive to boot at $752 FML Bucks. That lines up with the projection that it will be at the Top of the Box Office. Fantasy Movie League sees $60.3 million, while Box Office Pro sees $60.8 million and Box Office Report sees $57 million. With the film under performing last week, its cost and the varied projections, it feels like too big a swing to be anchor of the Cineplex.

It’s actually another animated film that caught my eye, The Secret Life of Pets 2. It’s priced at $74 FML Bucks, and Fantasy Movie League projects $5.7 million. But Box Office Pro sees $7.6 million and Box Office Report sees $6.6 million. It’s a strong candidate for Best Value, as lower-end films have seemed to be stronger this summer.

This Week’s Lineup:

I think the most expensive films create the most issues this week. 

Annabelle Comes Home
Yesterday x2
The Secret Life of Pets 2 x5

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