Fantasy Movie League: The Men in Black are Back!


As we make our way through June, schools are out and the market is flooded by blockbuster releases every weekend. This week is no exception, with four new releases entering the game, headlined by the latest iteration of Men in Black. More on that in a minute. First a moment to reflect on last week.

Given the field, I suggested that the real hope was in finding the one that held up best and riding it. I pinned some of my hopes to Dark Phoenix (which bombed) and Aladdin (which was just all right). I did get the Best Value film, A Dog’s Journey, on a couple screens, but it wasn’t nearly enough. If I’d gone with three Aladdin to anchor, I’d have done better. Instead, I finished about $21 million off the pace.

With another crowded cineplex, it’s time to try and lock on to what might offer the best value and ride that confidently into the weekend. As always, if you think you’re better at the game than me, I encourage you to join me in a Fantasy Life App Blog league! You can join the league here. On to this week’s competition.

New at the Box Office:

The biggest new release is the latest edition of Men in Black. This time it’s Men in Black: International, which takes the action across the globe and reunites Chris Hemsworth and Tessa Thompson (who were co-leads in Thor: Ragnarok) in the lead roles. They have always had good comedic chemistry in the Marvel Cinematic Universe, so hopefully that will carry over to this one. The early reviews, which yielded a Rotten Tomatoes score of 30 percent, seem to indicate otherwise. It’s the most expensive option at $536 FML Bucks, and Fantasy Movie League sees it in first place with $42.2 million. But they’re the most optimistic by far. Box Office Report and Box Office Pro have it atop the Box Office, but at a much lower haul. Box Office Report sees $33 million while Box Office Pro sees just $28 million. At those rates, this is a stay away to me, especially as an anchor.
The next biggest release is Shaft, which is a sequel of sorts. The original Shaft, Richard Roundtree, is back in his role, while Samuel L. Jackson also plays his Shaft character, and both are joined by Jessie Usher as the latest Shaft. This one also hasn’t been well received by critics, posting a 35 percent on Rotten Tomatoes at this point. It’s $334 FML Bucks, third most, which aligns with its Box Office Projections. Fantasy Movie League sees $18.3 million, Box Office Report goes with $17 million while Box Office Pro is highest at $20 million. The question is whether it’s a value, and based on the projection spread and cost I don’t think it is.
The next release is Late Night, the comedy from Mindy Kaling that features her and Emma Thompson as a late night host. The film opened in limited release last week but expands a bit this week. It’s only $96 FML Bucks, and is the best rated of the new films with an 83 percent critical score and a 92 percent audience score. Fantasy Movie League goes with $5.2 million, while Box Office Report sees $4.9 million. Box Office Pro sees just $3.5 million, meaning that it could be a value gamble on the lower end.
The final new entry is the indie comedy The Dead Don’t Die, a zombie film starring Bill Murray, Adam Driver and Chloe Sevigny that comes from writer/director Jim Jarmusch. Surprisingly it didn’t generate much heat with critics, coming in with a middling 53 percent on Rotten Tomatoes. It’s also in limited release during a crowded time of year, meaning it won’t have a ton of Box Office juice. It’s just $28 FML Bucks, and projected at $1.8 million by Fantasy Movie League and Box Office Report. It’s just a low-end filler.

The Search for the Best Value:

Summer is a time when people get excited to escape the heat and get entertained, but it’s also a time when the youngest audiences often drive Box Office decisions. The Secret Life of Pets 2 is the first big animated film to open this summer, and it’s likely to remain a strong value. It is $352 FML Bucks and Fantasy Movie League projected it at $22.5 million. Box Office Report sees $25 million, while Box Office Pro sees $25.8 million. That gives it the juice to be an enticing anchor.

Another family friendly film, Aladdin, continues to offer potential value as well. This week it’s priced at $271 FML Bucks, and carries projections $15.7 to $17.5 million. Fantasy Movie League is the lowest, and Box Office Report even sees it outpacing Shaft. That makes sense given the time of year and the audiences coming to theaters. Another potential value is Rocketman, which is $130 FML Bucks and projected at $8.2 million on Fantasy Movie League, while Box Office Pro and Box Office Report both see it over $9 million.

This Week’s Lineup:

I believe the family-friendly films will carry the day in terms of being an anchor. Those pets with their secret lives feel like the best shot at top end value.

The Secret Life of Pets 2 x2
Rocketman
Avengers: Endgame x2
The Dead Don’t Die
Booksmart x2

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