Fantasy Movie League: Toy Story Returns


We’re in the middle of June and it’s finally time for Pixar’s near annual summer release. This one — the fourth installment of Toy Story — figures to bring plenty of Box Office punch, but more on that in a minute. First, let’s look back at a tepid week at the Box Office.

In this space last week I suggested that while Men in Black: International was the big new release, it was unlikely to be a good anchor. I was right. The combination of The Secret Life of Pets 2 x2 and Rocketman was the best way to start your Cineplex. But the Best Value was The Dead Don’t Die, and those that played it over five screens got a Perfect Cineplex. I played it over one, so I fell off the mark. Even worse, the Perfect Cineplex was also the most popular, so it was a double blow. Hopefully I’ll get back on track this week.

Toy Story 4 is the big opener this week, and is treated as such in the game as we’ll see. But it’s one of three new movies at the Cineplex, which is becoming a theme this summer. What’s right for you? Let’s dive in. As always, if you think you’re better at the game than me, I encourage you to join me in a Fantasy Life App Blog league! You can join the league here. On to this week’s competition.

New at the Box Office:

Toy Story 4 is the biggest new opening, and is the surefire top option at the Box Office. It’s projected so big that it’s been split into daily scoring, adding a new wrinkle. Not only does it figure to have a built in fan base, it’s by all accounts very, very good. It currently clocks in with a 98 percent critical score on Rotten Tomatoes. Box Office Pro sees it grabbing $149 million, while Box Office Report goes even higher at $153 million. 

Naturally, in daily scoring, it provides the three most costly options in the game. The Friday screen is $519, the Saturday is $473 and the Sunday is $390. And Fantasy Movie League projects $73 million Friday, $63.5 Saturday and $55 million Sunday. All tolled, that is $191.5 million over three days, which is MUCH higher than other estimates. So the question is where the value will lie?
The next biggest release is Child’s Play, a re-boot of the old horror franchise featuring the killer doll Chucky. Doubtless there will be some nosalgia here, and horror movies generally do OK year round. There is no critical score yet, though I imagine it won’t be great and it wouldn’t matter with the target audience here. It’s $170 FML Bucks, in line with the projection of it being a (distant) second place film this week. Fantasy Movie League projects $17.6 million, while Box Office Pro sees $18 million and Box Office Report goes low at $13.5 million. It feels like a stay away.
The final new release is the action film Anna, which also doesn’t have a critical score or much buzz. It is only $46 FML bucks, but it’s not projected to make much of a dent at the Box Office. Fantasy Movie League sees only $3.6 million, while Box Office Report sees $4.5 million. So it’s probably low-end filler at best.

The Search for the Best Value:

Last week Men in Black landed with a thud, and that doesn’t figure to improve much this week. However, at $124 FML Bucks it’s less expensive as an option than The Secret Life of Pets 2 (133) and Aladdin (128), and has better projections. Fantasy Movie League projects it at $13.1 million, ahead of those more expensive films. Box Office Pro sees only $12.1, but also has it in third place, while Box Office Report sees $12.3 million, just back of Aladdin. So there’s some value to be had there.

This Week’s Lineup:

I don’t see playing a lineup this week that leaves Toy Story 4 out, but I think Saturday seems like the day most likely to produce a strong value. I’m also doing something I’ve never done before, leaving a screen empty…

Toy Story 4 (Sat)
Toy Story 4 (SUN)
Godzilla: King of the Monsters
John Wick 3: Parabellum
Avengers: Endgame x3

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