Fantasy Movie League: A Quiet end to September


We’ve seen, at times, a flurry of activity in September. That isn’t the case this week with just two new entries and one wide release to contend with. But that still gives us plenty to think about as we end the first month of Fall competition. And what a month it’s been.

For me, last week was another where I was close, but not quite there. Ad Astra looked like the anchor value, especially across four screens. And it was — even if the film itself was a snooze to sit through. It was those other four screens that proved the difference, and it was there I was off a bit. I was better than the Most Popular Option, but not as good as the perfect option. Alas, that seems to be a trend for me this Fall. Maybe this weekend can help me change my luck.

There are a couple new options in the game, but mostly the challenge as always is finding the right combination to create value. Let’s see if it happens for me in Week 4. As always, if you think you’re better at the game than me, I encourage you to join me in a Fantasy Life App Blog league! You can join the league here. On to this week’s competition.

New at the Box Office:

The week’s big new release is Abominable, the animated feature from Dreamworks. And it’s likely to draw a crowd, if only because we haven’t had a good kids movie released in more than a month. And this one has been a hit with critics as well, drawing an 80 percent critical score on Rotten Tomatoes. While that likely won’t be a big factor in drawing an audience, it should come as a relief for parents that spend their Friday, Saturday or Sunday with this snowy creature. And as you might expect, it’s projected atop the Box Office and comes in as the most expensive option at $573 FML Bucks. It’s projected at $20.7 million by Fantasy Movie League, $21 million by Box Office Pro and $22 million by Box Office Report. So there could be value here, especially if it jumps to the higher end. 
The only other new entry is Judy, a biopic on the later years of Judy Garland’s life starring Renee Zellweger. It’s in limited release, and costs just $26 FML Bucks. It has done well with critics, coming in at 87 percent and generating serious Oscar buzz for Zellweger. That will help draw the crowds. Fantasy Movie League sees $1.2 million, while Box Office Report went with $1.4 million. I wouldn’t be surprised to see it on the higher end of the spectrum, giving it value.

The Search for the Best Value:

While Ad Astra was the best anchor, Downton Abbey was the top Box Office draw last weekend, as expected. This week it’s priced at $369 while Fantasy Movie League sees a robust $17.4 million. You’d think that gives it a shot at value, but Box Office Pro sees $15.9 million and Box Office Report sees $16.3 million. Given that, I’m looking elsewhere for my anchor and value.

Two other films present an interesting question of value — Rambo Last Blood and IT Chapter 2. Fantasy Movie League priced IT at $187, and Rambo at $179, seeing IT at about $8.3 million and Rambo at $7.8 million. But they are the lowest. Box Office Pro sees IT at $10 million and Box Office Report sees it at $9.7 million, while Box Office Pro puts Rambo at $8.1 million and Box Office Report goes as high as $9 million. I think both have a chance to return solid value versus the competition.

This Week’s Lineup:

This week I’m betting on two powerhouse personalities, Pennywise and Judy.

IT Chapter 2 x5
Judy x2
Scary Stories to Tell in the Dark

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