Fantasy Movie League: A Box Office Crowd


Last week there were a pair of new wide releases, but it felt like the important thing was dialing in on value. And that ended up being the case as the film atop the Box Office — Maleficent Mistress of Evil — wasn’t a part of the Perfect Cineplex.

I thought Judy had a shot at Best Value and Joker seemed like the right choice for anchor. I was right on both accounts. Judy ended up as the Best Value, and Joker was the top anchor for the Perfect Cineplex. But while I went Joker x2 and Judy x5, the Perfect Cineplex chose Joker, Zombieland Double Tap and Judy x6. So I was close, but just a tad off the mark.

This week there are seven new films entering the game, none of which figures to take one of the top four spots at the Box Office. So how do you win? It’s about finding the value. As always, if you think you’re better at the game than me, I encourage you to join me in a Fantasy Life App Blog league! You can join the league here. On to this week’s competition.

New at the Box Office:

The biggest new release is Black and Blue, a drama about a police officer caught between some corrupt brothers in blue and some street gangs. It boasts a critical score of 57 percent, so not great but not awful. It’s priced at $126 FML Bucks and Fantasy Movie League projects it in sixth place with $4.8 million. But they are the lowest. Box Office Pro sees $7.2 million, while Box Office Report sees $7.3 million. So it could hold some value.
Next up is the horror film Countdown, about a new app that’s a literal killer. At $172 FML Bucks its the most expensive new option, and it doesn’t have a critical score. That likely won’t matter, and it likely won’t be great. Fantasy Movie League projects it in fifth place with $10.3 million, but they’re the most bullish. Box Office Pro sees $8 million and Box Office Report sees $6.3 million. So it’s hard to say if there’s value here.
Next up is The Lighthouse, a black-and-white indie film starring Robert Pattinson and Willem Dafoe. The film boasts an incredible 91 percent critical score, and it figures to be an award contender. But will it bring a crowd? The film is $50 FML Bucks, and Fantasy Movie League projects just $3.1 million though its going somewhat wide. Box Office Report sees $3.7 million, so there could be some value here.
Next up is the Kanye West concert event film Jesus is King. No critical score yet, and hard to say what kind of audience this one will draw. At $59 FML Bucks its the third most expensive new film, which is curious. Fantasy Movie League projects $2.6 million, but neither of the other two project a total, meaning they have much less faith. So this is a buyer be ware.
The next option is The Current War, another potential award season. It comes in at $45 FML Bucks and boasts a woeful 31 percent on Rotten Tomatoes. That’s not a great sign, which might mean this one won’t draw as big a crowd as it could. Fantasy Movie League sees just $1.7 million, but they are the lowest by far. Box Office Pro sees $3.9 million while Box Office Report sees $3.5 million, meaning there could be some nice value here.
Next up is Jojo Rabbit, another indie gem that’s in the conversation for award season. This one is in limited release, but it boasts a critical score of 77 percent. But it has a 98 percent audience score, indicating it could have some great word-of-mouth. It’s $22 FML Bucks and projected at $1.6 million. It feels like some low-end filler with some upside.
The final new entry in the game is Housefull 4, a foreign film and sequel that comes in at $34 FML Bucks and is projected at $1.8 million. Fantasy Movie League is the only one to offer a projection, so this is a low-end dart throw, too.

The Search for the Best Value:

Last week Maleficent returned and sat atop the Box Office. But she didn’t provide strong value. Once again Maleficent is projected to finish first, garnering projections between $18.9 and $20.4 million, with Fantasy Movie League as the highest. So it feels like a weak option for value, especially at $255 FML Bucks, second most. Joker is the most expensive at $256, carrying projections between $18.6 and $19 million, so it’s a worse option for value.

Zombieland Double Tap (182) and The Addams Family (167) are also projected between third and fourth place, but their projections are all over the map relative to value, which makes it tough to see them as great anchor options.

This Week’s Lineup:

There are some options here, but I think The Current War could have value on the low end and despite its cost Maleficent seems like the best anchor given the margins.

Maleficent: Mistress of Evil x3
The Current War x5

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