Fantasy Movie League: A Frozen Weekend


I started this Fall season strong, but the last two weeks have taken a bite out of my season-long work. Last week I was was off, again, in my guessing what would return the best possible value. 

I thought Doctor Sleep looked like a potential value, and it indeed returned third best value. But Playing With Fire rocked, while Charlie’s Angels bombed, and that left me chasing Box Office dollars. So it wasn’t a good week.

This week there are three new wide releases, but its Frozen 2 that figures to dominate. Thus we have a return to daily scoring! As always, if you think you’re better at the game than me, I encourage you to join me in a Fantasy Life App Blog league! You can join the league here. On to this week’s competition.

New at the Box Office:

Frozen 2 is the sequel that figures to dominate everything, and that’s just the way Disney likes it. The first film was one of the biggest ever, and this sequel is sure to draw fans that want to see how Anna and Elsa’s story continues. Critics gave it a good, not great, 79 percent critical score, but that probably won’t dissuade the core audience. Since next week is a holiday for many, we’re cruising into a period of more free time, too. The film is in daily scoring, and is the three highest prices with Friday at $672, Saturday at $668 and Sunday at $535 FML Bucks. And that aligns with the projections, which Fantasy Movie League sees at $48 million on Friday (including preview screenings), $42.3 million on Saturday and $36.4 million on Sunday. 

That is a three-day total of $126.7 million, which actually puts Fantasy Movie League the lowest on Frozen 2. Box Office Pro sees $130 million and Box Office Report goes to $136 million. That means Frozen 2 is the most expensive, and likely the best shot at value. The question is what day provides that best value, because it’s priced to force you to choose only one.
The next biggest release is A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, which features Tom Hanks in the role of Fred Rogers. Last year’s documentary was my favorite film of the year, and this promises to give all the feels all over again. It has a 97 percent score on Rotten Tomatoes, which is pretty great. And it figures to bring audiences out, too. Though not in as great a number as Frozen 2. The film is priced at $203 FML Bucks, fourth most, and is projected in second place at $18.6 million. But Fantasy Movie League is the highest, as Box Office Pro sees $16 million and third place, while Box Office Report sees $17 million and third place.
The final new wide release is the Chadwick Boseman action film 21 Bridges. It’s got a critical score of 44 percent, which isn’t great, and is priced at $128 FML Bucks. Fantasy Movie League sees it grabbing $9.8 million, but this is one that has projections all over the board. Box Office Pro sees $8.4 million while Box Office Report sees $13 million. That means its value lies in how you feel about its projections.

The Search for the Best Value:

Last week Ford v Ferrari dominated at the Box Office with more than $31 million. It boasts great reviews and a good cast. But it’s likely to be overshadowed by Frozen 2. It is priced at $201 FML Bucks, just below A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, and Fantasy Movie League sees $18.2 million and third place. But Box Office Pro and Box Office Report, while going lower at $16.9 and $17.5 million, respectively) see it in second place. That could mean that even if it’s below projections, it will return a bit of value.

This Week’s Lineup:

Given the projections, Frozen 2 is tempting. But at its price point, Ford v Ferrari offers the bigger bang, I think. Time to swing big.

Ford v Ferrari x4
Playing With Fire x2
Last Christmas x2

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