Fantasy Movie League: Frozen heats up Box Office Competition


Well, that didn’t go as planned. Last week marked the end of the Fall Season for Fantasy Movie League, and I hoped to reverse the fortunes that had led to a late-season swoon. For that, I looked to the hottest movie out there — Frozen 2.

I banked on Thanksgiving weekend leaving families stir crazy, and booked Frozen 2 on two screens, adding A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood and a steady dose of Last Christmas. Instead the Best Value was Queen & Slim, which was priced just right to sit on eight screens. That left me limping to the finish $30 million off the pace. But this week begins a new season, and a new shot at glory.

But it doesn’t bring a lot of new options at the Box Office. While there are two new wide releases, it’s still Frozen 2’s world. So where is the value? Let’s hope the Winter Season starts off strong. As always, if you think you’re better at the game than me, I encourage you to join me in a Fantasy Life App Blog league! You can join the league here. On to this week’s competition.

New at the Box Office:

There are just two new wide releases, the bigger of them is Dark Water. This is the biopic about the fight with Du Pont about chemical pollution starring Mark Ruffalo. The film boasts an outstanding critical score of 92 percent, and could be an award season contender. But it might not elicit the holiday feels. It is only $50 FML Bucks, but projected at just $2.6 million by Fantasy Movie League. But Box Office Pro sees $5 million and Box Office Report sees $4 million, so it could have some punch on the low end.
The other wide release is Playmobil: The Movie, an animated feature made of the popular toy. It has been savaged by critics with a 23 percent critical score. And given the other competition and light marketing, this one likely won’t have a big market share. It’s just $49 FML Bucks, but projected at $3.1 million. Box Office Pro sees $2.2 million and Box Office Report goes with $2.4 million. This one is a stay away.

The Search for the Best Value:

Frozen 2 has dominated the last two weeks, and for our purposes has been in daily scoring. It’s back in single scoring now, at $556 FML Bucks as an option. Fantasy Movie League projects it in first again with $43.3 million, but they’re the most bullish. Box Office Pro sees it in first with $36.2 million, while Box Office Report sees first place and $38 million. That makes it a tough bet for value at that price point unless it reaches or bests the top projection.

Queen & Slim was the Best Value last week, but now it’s priced at $94 FML Bucks and projected at $6.7 million. Box Office Pro sees $6.4 million, while Box Office Report goes to $7.9 million. If it beats projections again, it holds plenty of value and appeal.

This Week’s Lineup:

Despite the cost, Frozen 2 still seems like the right anchor. While it’s under-performed in the competition for a couple weeks, the pricing a projections for A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood look better this week.

Frozen 2
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood x5
Midway
The Good Liar

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