Fantasy Movie League: Slow Start to December


After not seeing much of a challenge the past three weekend, Frozen 2 appears to be headed toward its first second place finish as another popular sequel swings in. But more on that in a minute. First, it’s time to consider how I fared in the first week of the new Winter Season. And it’s fair to say there’s room for improvement.

Though it was the most expensive, Frozen 2 appeared to be the best anchor last week, and it was. But I thought A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood would be a potential Best Value, and I loaded up. Instead, it was new entry Dark Waters that exceeded its $50 price tag. So I finished quite a bit off the pace. Time to rally.

This week there are three new wide releases, led by the follow up to Jumanji that figures to dominate. But will it be essential to dominating in Fantasy Movie League? Let’s find out. As always, if you think you’re better at the game than me, I encourage you to join me in a Fantasy Life App Blog league! You can join the league here. On to this week’s competition.

New at the Box Office:

The biggest new release this week is Jumanji: The Next Level, a sequel to the re-boot that was released a couple years ago. When that film came out, it was a boon at the Box Office and was a strong play in our game for months. So this will bear watching as well. It has a decent critical score of 71 percent, which is solid news. For now, it’s the most expensive entry at $592 FML Bucks and figures to dominate the Box Office getting a one week jump on Star Wars. Fantasy Movie League projects it in first at $48.7 million. But they’re the most bullish. Box Office Pro projects first, but with $39 million while Box Office Report sees first with $42.5 million. At its price point, that kind of variance for Jumanji, especially if it goes low, could end up hurting it as a value play or anchor.
The next wide release is Black Christmas, a re-make of the horror tale about a sorority that gets attacked on Christmas. I know you’re excited….The film has a middling critical score of 40 percent, but it does offer counter-programming to the typical seasonal fare. And this week is Friday the 13th, so it could find an audience. It is $203 FML Bucks, third most in the game, which aligns with a projection of $13.1 million and third place. They are the highest, with Box Office Pro seeing $11 million and Box Office Report seeing $10.7 million. That could make it a tough bet for value.
The final new wide release is Richard Jewell, the biopic on the man that found the bomb at the 1996 Atlanta Olympics that is directed by Clint Eastwood. It has the best critical score at 80 percent, and Eastwood has a built in audience. It’s also an award season contender, which helps. It’s priced at $167 FML Bucks, fourth most but least of the new releases, and projected in fourth place with $12.1 million. Again, Fantasy Movie League is the highest. While the others see the film in fourth, Box Office Pro suggests $10.9 million and Box Office Report suggests $10 million. This appears to be a case where Fantasy Movie League is more bullish on the Box Office in general than others. That could be the case as we careen toward Christmas, with holiday events, parties and preparation eating into folks’ spare time.

The Search for the Best Value:

Then there is Frozen 2, which has dominated since its release on November 21. While Jumanji is a family-friendly film, it likely won’t totally erode the Frozen 2 audience. At $263 FML Bucks, it’s second most in the game. But it’s projected in second with $18.9 million. Unlike the new releases, though, Fantasy Movie League is the lowest here. Box Office Pro sees $20 million and Box Office Report sees $19.5 million. That could give it value against cost.

Another interesting option is Knives Out, which has spectacular reviews and buzz. It’s $127 FML Bucks and projected at $8.1 million. But Box Office Pro sees $9.1 million and Box Office Report sees $9.5 million. That means a good shot at some value. Another potential value is Ford v Ferrari, which was part of the Perfect Cineplex last week. Fantasy Movie League prices it at $3.7, but everyone else sees $4.4 million. That’s a good return on investment.

This Week’s Lineup:

Jumanji might not be as strong as some project, but it still offers the best anchor if paired with the right value.

Jumanji: The Next Level
Ford v Ferrari x7

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