Fantasy Movie League: Star Wars is Here!


We’re in December, and the Box Office explosion is just beginning. Last week the follow up to Jumanji was predicted to dominate the Box Office, and it did better than expected. This week we get Star Wars, and it figures to dominate, too, including being in daily scoring. But more on that in a minute.

Last week I did take Jumanji as the anchor, and it was not only the best anchor, it was the Best Value. That’s the good. I also bet heavily on the value in Ford v Ferrari, and there I was close but not quite there. That film provided the third best value, and so my cineplex missed the Perfect Mark by just a bit as those that leaned on Tom Hanks and A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, the second best value, scooted a bit ahead. Hopefully this week will be better.

As I mentioned, Star Wars is here, and in daily scoring. But it’s one of four new releases to join the game. Plus we have some strong holdovers. So what will be the best combination? Let’s explore that! As always, if you think you’re better at the game than me, I encourage you to join me in a Fantasy Life App Blog league! You can join the league here. On to this week’s competition.

New at the Box Office:

So a little film called Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker opens Friday, perhaps you’ve heard of it? Just kidding, you can’t miss it. It’s been everywhere, and the promise of a conclusion to the saga comes with it. The last film, The Last Jedi, was a critical darling that divided fans. Critical reviews to this installment are mixed, with it currently boasting a 58 percent on Rotten Tomatoes. But despite that, hoards will flock to it this weekend. Fantasy Movie League has it in daily scoring with Friday — which includes preview screenings and overnight screenings — at $709 FML Bucks, Saturday at $421 FML Bucks and Sunday at $359 FML Bucks. That aligns with projections, showing $99.2 million for Friday, $59.3 million for Saturday and $47.9 million for Sunday. That is a three-day total of $206.4 million. Box Office Report is less bullish with $189 million for a three-day total, so the question is not whether you pick any Star Wars, but what day offers the best value. 
The next biggest opening is the movie version of the musical Cats. It has a frightening preview and a woeful 17 percent score on Rotten Tomatoes. That’s not promising. Still, it has a built-in fanbase, and I think people will see it. But that might not occur on opening weekend. This is also the biggest shopping weekend of the year… It’s priced at $132 FML Bucks and projected at $14.8 million. Box Office Report sees $14.5 million, so they are on about the same page.
The next new release is Bombshell, which tells the story of the Roger Ailes scandal at FOX News. This one is an award contender, but probably doesn’t have the wide holiday appeal of some of the other offerings. It’s modestly priced at $62 FML Bucks and projected at $6.9 million. But Box Office Report sees $9.3 million, which could give it some value. It’s also the best reviewed of the three new wide release at 62 percent on Rotten Tomatoes.
The only other new entry to the game is Uncut Gems, the drama that figures to be an award season player, and could provide an awards season run for funny man Adam Sandler, who offers a dark turn. This one is a limited release, and probably won’t do huge money this weekend. It opens wider on Christmas Day. The film costs just $6 FML Bucks, and is projected at less than $800,000. It’s low-end filler at this point.

The Search for the Best Value:

Last week, Jumanji: The Next Level dominated the Box Office. But it didn’t get great scores, and features a lot more competition this week. At $201 FML Bucks, its the second most expensive film, but fourth most expensive option. It’s projected at $27.8 million by Fantasy Movie League and $26.5 million by Box Office Report. So unless it exceeds those projections by a fair bit, this week it will be a tough bet for value.

A sneaky value might be Frozen 2, as those out of school now might still flock there with their kids. It’s only $82 FML Bucks, but projected at $10.9 million. Box Office Report is even more bullish at $12 million, which could give it some good value options.

This Week’s Lineup:

For as much as it is, I think Friday is the Star Wars day to bet on.

Star Wars: Rise of Skywalker (Fri)
Frozen 2 x3
Ford v Ferrari x2
Uncut Gems x2

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