Fantasy Movie League: Bad Boys are Back


Last weekend four new movies opened wide, and that made a crowd at the Box Office. But it was a hold over, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, that looked like a good value to me. It was priced well and had a chance, I thought, to be the Best Value. But I was a little off in my projections.

I went with Star Wars on four screens, and while it was a value, the Best Value went to 1917, which exceeded expectations. As a result, I missed out on the Perfect Cineplex. I was better than the Most Popular Cineplex option, but a bit off the pace. Heading into the holiday weekend, I’ll try to do better.

There are two new wide releases this week, and the film Parasite is back in play after the Academy Award nominations were announced Monday. This is an interesting weekend, because we get four days of play instead of three and with the award nominations announced, we’ll see many of those in the lower and middle group get a bump. And one of the biggest contenders, 1917, is in its second week in wide release and figures to still be quite a player. As always, if you think you’re better at the game than me, I encourage you to join me in a Fantasy Life App Blog league! You can join the league here. On to this week’s competition.

New at the Box Office:

The biggest new release is the long-awaited sequel, Bad Boys For Life. The buddy cop action flick is the third one featuring leads Martin Lawrence and Will Smith. Their last outing was in 2003, but in the 17 years since audiences haven’t forgotten about them. OK, I haven’t forgotten. Bad Boys is one of my favorite movies, and I’m beyond pumped to have Mike and Marcus back in a Michael Bay spectacle. And the thing is, critics liked this, too. It boasts a 76 percent on Rotten Tomatoes. It’s the most expensive option at $416 FML Bucks, but not by that much. And it’s projected in first place. Fantasy Movie League sees $38.6 million. But they are the lowest. Box Office Pro sees $40 million and Box Office Report goes to $47 million. That means this could have value, as 1917 did last week, though it’s the top option.
The other new wide release is Dolittle, a Disneyfied re-make starring Robert Downey, Jr. in the lead. This was an expensive undertaking, and has been the beneficiary of a big marketing campaign. And yet, excitement for it seems tepid. But not as tepid as the critical reaction, which has been overwhelmingly poor. The Rotten Tomatoes critical score is just 13 percent, which is really bad. Will that take a bite out of the Box Office? It might. It’s $251 FML Bucks, third most in the game, and Fantasy Movie League projects $25.2 million. But Box Office Pro sees just $16.9 million and Box Office Report sees $20.2 million. To me, this is a stay away in every sense of the word.

The Search for the Best Value:

Last week 1917 finally opened wide, and it was the most expensive option. It was also the Best Value, as folks flocked to see the highly anticipated film. Since that time, it’s gotten a boat load of Academy Award nominations, and has great word of mouth. I expect it will continue to be a strong player at the Box Office. At $380 it’s second most in the game, just $36 FML Bucks off the leader in Bad Boys. But this one doesn’t have quite as robust of projections. Fantasy Movie League sees $38.4 million, but Box Office Pro sees just $25 million and Box Office report sees just $31 million. At that price point, unless it matches the top projections it won’t return value.

On the low end, I like Parasite. It’s $34 FML Bucks, and after getting six Academy Award nominations, it’s got some good buzz. Fantasy Movie League sees $3 million, and as it returns to a good number of theaters, I could see that being the right track.

This Week’s Lineup:
This week, I’m loading up on the Bad Boys.

Bad Boys For Life x2
Parasite x3
Bombshell x3

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