Fantasy Movie League: A muddle at the Box Office


The new Spring Season kicked off last weekend, and it didn’t start strong for me. Onward looked like a clear number one, and the film that would need to be the anchor position. It was a clear number one, but it wasn’t the anchor, and value, that was hoped.

The film was atop the Box Office, but it fell short of projections. That’s something that will bare watching for all the big releases the next couple months. Instead, it was the steady performance of The Way Back that earned it the Best Performer nod, and a Cineplex playing it eight times was the perfect way to go. I, needless to say, finished off the pace.

This week there’s three new films added to the mix, but it’s tough to say where the value would be. Another lingering question is the rapidly changing state of the world in the wake of the expansion of COVID-19. Some things are bigger than games, and this health scare is one of them. It has already led to cancelled events, a suspension of the NBA Season and the removal of fans at NCAA Tournament events. It’s foolish to think it won’t impact the Box Office, another place of mass gatherings. But those impacts remain to be seen, and are impossible to project. So for now, we’ll just do our best to get back in the hunt for the top spot this Spring Season. As always, if you think you’re better at the game than me, I encourage you to join me in a Fantasy Life App Blog league! You can join the league here. On to this week’s competition.

New at the Box Office:

The biggest of the new entries is the Christian film I Still Believe, a biopic on singer Jeremy Camp. It’s also the best reviewed of the three new films, coming in with a critical score of 69 percent. I think the core audience for this will likely be unmoved by critical reviews. The film is $220 FML Bucks, second most, and is mostly projected a strong second place finisher at the Box Office. Fantasy Movie League sees $14.8 million, while Box Office Pro sees $12 million and Box Office Report sees $14 million. If it does better than projected, and/or Onward is low again, that could make this a value candidate.
The next biggest release is the controversial horror film The Hunt, which was pushed from a projected release in late 2019 due to political concerns. Now the film seems to be playing into those fears or issues as part of its marketing campaign, and hoping the controversy combined with the Friday the 13th date will bring out audiences. I’m less certain. It only has a 54 percent on Rotten Tomatoes, and I think the plot idea is still a little murky. Many have suggested the film is a slog, and given the state of the world that might not be what audiences want if they decided to venture out this weekend. The film is $173 FML Bucks and projected at $7.7 million. Box Office Pro sees $8.2 million and Box Office Report sees $8.3 million, so it’s possible there is a little value here.
The final new release is Bloodshot, the film based on a comic book and starring Vin Diesel. If you see only one Diesel film this Spring, it shouldn’t be this one. In fact, you probably just should avoid it all together based on the reviews, which are poor, and the marketing, which looks poor. The critical score for this one is 39 percent, but it’s $201 FML Bucks and has some OK projections. Fantasy Movie League projects $9.6 million and Box Office Pro projects $10.2 million. But Box Office Report sees just $8.5 million, so I would urge caution in looking here for value.

The Search for the Best Value:

For the second week in a row, Onward is the most expensive option. This week is paces the field at $377 FML Bucks. And for the second week in a row, it’s projected atop the Box Office. This time with a range of $19.8 to $26 million. Fantasy Movie League is the lowest, so it could provide a potential boon return. The question is whether it does better against projections in Week 2 than it did its opening week. Still, it’s well reviewed and as more schools and colleges head to Spring Break, that could bring more of a mass audience to this story.

Another potential is the well-reviewed The Invisible Man. It’s $174 FML Bucks, and Fantasy Movie League projected it around $8 million. But Box Office Pro sees $10 million and Box Office Report sees $9.3 million, so that feels like a strong value position.

This Week’s Lineup:

I think the audience will still be there for I Still Believe, which is a more feel good story.

I Still Believe x4
Sonic the Hedgehog
Harley Quinn: Birds of Prey
Fantasy Island x2

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