Player Profile: Drew Lock

No one had a better 2020 draft than Drew Lock. Taken in the second round of the 2019 draft, it was fair to wonder most of last season if the Broncos had buyers’ remorse. There were even questions if Lock would be activated and see the field at all, despite the fact the Broncos’ offense looked pitiful with Joe Flacco and Brandon Allen at the helm.

But Lock finally made his debut in December, and went 4–1 as a starter. It was a good sign for the team and fans. Even better, the Broncos have spent the off-season — and particularly the draft — building a team around Lock. That means he’ll have every chance to succeed in 2020. That also comes with the weight of expectation. So how should you think about Lock in your 2020 drafts?

A Franchise QB?

Lock was one of the top prospects at the position heading into the 2019 draft. Some thought he’d go in the first round, and the Broncos seemed like a logical destination. The team had seemed interested in Lock and held the No. 10 pick in the draft. They soon traded back to No. 20, and anticipation built. But the Broncos drafted tight end Noah Fant.

In the second round, the Broncos held the 41st pick, and Lock was still there. It seemed like they’d take their possible franchise quarterback in the second, but instead the team took guard Dalton Risner. Then John Elway made a move, traded back up to the very next pick (No. 42), and snagged Lock. So the Broncos drafted their quarterback, knowing they had the veteran Flacco to start the season.

Lock was a four-year player for Missouri, including three solid years as a starter. As a junior in 2017, he threw for 3,964 yards, 44 TDs and 13 INTs. As a senior, Lock improved his completion percentage to 62.9 percent, throwing for 3,498 yards, 28 TDs and eight INTs. And the Broncos brought him in hoping to secure the position and their future, something the team struggled with since Peyton Manning retired following the 2015 season.

But Lock got off to a bumpy start. He drew criticism from coach Vic Fangio during training camp, looked just OK in pre-season and suffered an injury that landed him on IR. So while a number of other rookie QBs — including Kyler Murray, Daniel Jones, Gardner Minshew and Dwayne Haskins were earning starts — Broncos fans waited. With the team out of the playoffs, sitting at 3–8, Lock finally debuted on December 1 against the Los Angeles Chargers. While he was just OK in the stat line, Lock got the Broncos a win.

But it was his second start, December 8 in Houston against the playoff bound Texans, that really saw his star rise. He went 22-for-27 for 309 yards, three TDs and an INT. And the Broncos won 38–24. After a stumble in Kansas City the following Week, Lock ended with two solid performances as he led the Broncos to wins over the Lions and the Raiders. He finished 4–1 as a starter, throwing for 1,020 yards, seven TDs and three INTs. He also added 72 yards rushing and completed 64.1 percent of his passes. In short, he appeared worth the wait. And this off-season the Broncos parted ways with Flacco and Allen, bringing in only Jeff Driskel as a backup. This was the first piece of a seeming vote of confidence in Lock heading into 2020.

Locked and Loaded

The other piece of the vote of confidence in Lock is what the Broncos are building around him. The team already had a strong No. 1 receiver in Courtland Sutton, a player that caught 72 passes for 1,112 yards and six TDs as a second-year receiver. They also have tight end Noah Fant, who as a rookie caught 40 passes for 562 yards and three TDs. The team also boasted Phillip Lindsay, an undrafted free agent who posted back-to-back 1,000 yard rushing seasons, and then added free agent running back Melvin Gordon, who was a force for the Chargers for five seasons. The team also added Graham Glasgow to bolster the interior of the offensive line, clearly working toward building something.

In the draft, the team went further. With the 15th pick in the First Round, Denver took receiver Jerry Jeudy from Alabama. In three years with the Crimson Tide, Jeudy caught 159 passes for 2,742 yards and 26 TDs. Jeudy gives Denver a solid weapon that should be a force opposite Sutton and Fant. In the second round, the Broncos grabbed K.J. Hamler, the speedy receiver from Penn State who caught 56 passes for 904 yards and eight TDs last season. The Broncos wrapped up their third round with center Lloyd Cushenberry from LSU, giving them a solid starter in a key position. But it’s not just the players that have Lock and the Broncos poised to take a step forward offensively in 2020. The team also brought in new offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur to lead the charge.

Under Rich Scangarello last season, the Broncos’ offense struggled in most areas. Though Lock showed flashes, the team won seven games and players like Sutton, Fant and Lindsay had some strong individual seasons, the offense was tough to watch. So after Shurmur’s time in New York with the Giants ended, the Broncos decided to make a change. The hope is that Shurmur can breathe life into the Broncos’ attack and help Lock come into his own in year two.

Last year, Shurmur worked with rookie Daniel Jones. Though Jones battled injuries to himself and skill position players, in 12 starts he threw for 3,027 yards, 24 TDs and 12 INTs with a 61.9 percent completion percentage. But that’s hardly the only example of Shurmur’s work that drew the Broncos’ attention. He’s previously served as an offensive coordinator for the Rams, Browns, Eagles and Vikings. And it was his work in 2017 with the Vikings that led the Broncos to make another quarterback decision in the 2018 season when they signed Case Keenum. Under Shurmur with the Vikings in 2018, Keenum threw for 3,547 yards, 22 TDs and seven INTs in 14 starts. He also completed 67.6 percent of his passes, as the Vikings made it to the NFC Championship Game.

Shurmur also served as offensive coordinator for the Eagles in 2013 under Chip Kelley. That season Nick Foles came in to start 10 games, throwing for 2,891 yards, 27 TDs and two INTs. Seeing how Shurmur has been able to guide offenses and get the most out of young quarterbacks, the Broncos hope that he can similarly transform the Broncos offense with Lock at the helm and a strong group of new weapons.

2020 Outlook

So what kind of a bet is Lock in 2020? In full disclosure, I am a Broncos fan so I’m not entirely impartial. As someone who is in 26 Dynasty Leagues, I own a ton of shares of Lock, so I’m hoping for the best. And with the weapons in place and the coaching change, along with an offensive line upgrade, Lock is being put in a position to succeed.

For fantasy, that makes him intriguing. In dynasty, he’s a solid stash as a second year player with no competition. And in 2QB and Superflex leagues, he has some appeal because of where he’s going. Lock currently has an ADP of QB22 in PPR and QB23 in Standard, making him a low-end QB2 right now in most standard size leagues. Given his potential and what Shurmur has done with other young quarterbacks, I think that makes him a value in the format. If you like to wait on QBs, Lock is one of a handful of players that could be a strong value, especially as rookies like Joe Burrow, Tua Tagovailoa and Justin Herbert begin pushing their way up the draft charts.