Player Profile: Juju Smith-Schuster

Heading into the 2019 season, there was a lot of optimism about Juju Smith-Schuster. Coming off a Pro Bowl and a great year in 2018, and finally free of the shadow of Antonio Brown, many expected Smith-Schuster to be a WR1. Instead, it was a brutal season for the Steelers’ offense, and for Smith-Schuster in particular.

The third year wide receiver saw a career low in games, targets and receptions. He also played almost the entire season without Ben Roethlisberger, who was lost for the season in the second game. But with Big Ben back, and Smith-Schuster healthy again, will that mean a return to form? That’s what those betting on him are banking on, but let’s consider the evidence.

Offensive Firepower

Smith-Schuster came into the league in 2017, drafted in the second round after playing at USC. He came in as one of the youngest players ever, and even entering his fourth professional season is just 23-years-old. He seemed to be a great upside fit in an explosive Steelers’ offense that was led by Roethlisberger, running back Le’Veon Bell and receiver Antonio Brown. As a rookie, Smith-Schuster played in 14 games, starting seven, and posted 58 receptions for 917 yards and seven TDs on just 79 targets.

In 2018, as Bell sat out, the Steelers’ offense found a way to explode without him. While James Conner filled the rushing void, amassing 973 yards and 12 TDs in 13 games, Smith-Schuster and Brown were a terrifying receiving tandem. Brown has 168 targets, grabbing 104 receptions for 1,297 yards and 15 TDs, while Smith-Schuster had 166 targets, grabbing 111 receptions for 1,426 yards and seven TDs. Both earned Pro Bowl berths. And when the wheels came off the bus in the off-season, and Bell went to the New York Jets while Brown was traded to the Raiders, it appeared to be Smith-Schuster’s time to shine.

That optimism led to an inflated draft position, but some urged caution.

A Lost Season

Roethlisberger, the rock of the Steelers’ offense, played just two games in 2019, throwing for 351 yards and an interception before being lost for the season. Those that came in behind him — Mason Rudolph and Devlin “Duck” Hodges — weren’t exactly robust. In total, the Steelers’ pass offense produced just 3,214 yards, 18 TDs and 19 INTs. And their games were, often, painful to watch.

It wasn’t just the quarterback who struggled to stay on the field. Conner struggled with injuries, playing in just 10 games, while Smith-Schuster struggled with injuries as well, playing in a career-low 12 games. Smith-Schuster got just 70 targets and had 42 receptions for 552 yards and three TDs, all career lows. He ended up with the fourth most receptions on his team, behind wide receivers Diontae Johnson and James Washington, as well as running back Jaylen Samuels.

Johnson, who played in all 16 games and started 12, caught 59 passes fro 680 yards and five TDs on 92 targets to lead the Steelers. Washington, who played in 15 games and started 10, caught 44 passes on 80 targets for 735 yards and three TDs. Both went far later in drafts than Smith-Schuster, who was drafted to be an WR1. He finished as WR65 in ESPN PPR scoring. And Johnson and Washington are still there, while the Steelers added free agent tight end Eric Ebron and rookie wide receiver Chase Claypool to bolster their receiving options.

So which Smith-Schuster will we get? And how much can be blamed on the diminished quarterback play and his injuries. The injury question, as well as his potential role as the Steelers’ WR1 are still up in the air heading into the 2020 season. But without a doubt the QB play impacted the entire Steelers’ offense. While the team produced 3,214 yards and 18 TDs in 2019, Big Ben produced 5,219 yards and 34 TDs in 2018 and 4,251 and 28 TDs in 2017. So event if Ben returns to 2017 numbers and not the lofty heights of 2018 it would be an improvement. In 2017 Big Ben completed 360 passes. Last year, Steelers’ quarterbacks completed just 315. A more productive pass offense will buoy everyone, including Smith-Schuster. The question is if he’s still worth the gamble.

The Bottom Line

Despite a poor campaign in 2019, people are still high on Smith-Schuster. His ADP has dipped, but not substantially. He’s currently going as WR12 in PPR and WR15 in Standard, meaning people still see him as a low-end WR1/high end WR2. To hit that, he’d have to return to something closer to his 2018 form. This being a contract year, it’s certain that Smith-Schuster will be motivated to show that he can thrive without Brown opposite him, and that 2019 was a fluke.

I was incredibly high on Smith-Schuster last year, and he remains a player I love. I expect a bounce back, and in fact think his ADP makes a lot of sense for what I expect in 2020. But it’s not without risk. All the reasons people were excited for him in 2019 remain, but the arguments for why that might be overly optimistic seem to have been bolstered by his 2019 production. Smith-Schuster caught six passes for 78 yards in Week 1 with Big Ben against a New England defense that turned out to be one of the league’s best and followed that up with five passes for 84 yards in Week 2 against Seattle despite losing his quarterback. He also got eight targets in each of those games, seeing that many only one time in the rest of the 10 games he played. When he did get targets, good things usually happened. He turned seven targets against the 49ers, another great defense, into three receptions for 81 yards and a touchdown. He turned seven targets against the Ravens into seven receptions for 75 yards and a touchdown. And against Miami, in his biggest game of the season, he turned a season-high nine targets into five receptions for 103 yards and a touchdown.

Is Smith-Schuster going to become Brown for the Steelers? The jury is out on that. Is he better than his totals from 2019? I think he most certainly is, and playing in a more robust and consistent offense will help him get there. I understand the risk, but for me the upside of Smith-Schuster is too attractive to pass up.