Dynasty Rankings Pre-Draft: QBs

A shiny crop of new rookies will finally get their landing spots at the end of April. But until then, we’ve seen plenty of movement since the new League Year began in March. Now feels like a great time to look at where we stand in dynasty. I’ll be updating my positional rankings—QB, RB, WR, and TE—in a series of posts this next week. Today, I kick off with my Top 25 quarterbacks.

To say the quarterback landscape has changed in the last month is the understatement of the century. We have at least six quarterbacks that will likely get drafted later this month, and we have a couple guys waiting to see if they’ll land new teams. But it’s starting to feel like that won’t change much on this list.

1. Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills—Allen has been a strong producer, both as a passer and rusher. The Bills have a great team that figures to compete for a title and Allen’s dual-threat ability makes him the clear top option.

2. Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs—Mahomes is a great passer and even without Tyreek Hill I think he’ll do just fine. He’s locked into Kansas City for years in a competitive AFC West. He’s probably the safest choice atop this list.

3. Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers—A fast riser, Herbert backed up a great rookie season with a great 2021. The Chargers are loaded with weapons and figure to be a key player in the AFC Playoff landscape. If you got him as the No. 3 QB in the 2020 rookie draft, you lucked out.

4. Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals—Fresh off a Super Bowl appearance, we saw Burrow thrive in the Bengals’ offense even with a middling line. The Bengals are working on that, and it’s wheels up for the No. 1 pick from the 2020 Draft.

5. Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens—Jackson has undeniable talent. But it comes with a risk. A lot of his value comes from his legs. Maybe his passing continues to take a step up, but we have also seen the risk of injury. Jackson has a big ceiling, but he’s not the safest choice in the Top 5.

6. Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys—Dak and the Cowboys have developed a great offense. Even with Amari Cooper in Cleveland, I like the offensive pieces around Dak. Combined with CeeDee Lamb, Michael Gallup and Dalton Schultz, it will continue to be wheels up for the ‘Boys and those who roster Dak.

7. Deshaun Watson, Cleveland Browns—I understand the issues here. This has nothing to do with Watson’s off-the-field issues, which deserve a discussion. This is about production when he’s on the field. He was Top 5 before last season, and I think he’s still capable of producing. My only hesitations are a potential suspension and wondering what a change of systems—to a more run-focused scheme—will do to cap his ceiling.

8. Russell Wilson, Denver Broncos—Wilson needed a change of scenery. He’s in a better offensive scheme with a better line and great running back behind him. He also has a great core of receivers. I expect him to easily be in the Top 10.

9. Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams—Moving to the Rams was a perfect fit for Stafford. Fresh off a Super Bowl win, he could have better receiving options with Cam Akers back and Allen Robinson joining Cooper Kupp. He’s a Top 10 guy.

10. Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals—We saw what happens when Murray is beat up and can’t use his legs in 2021. He also hasn’t put up any huge passing seasons, even with DeAndre Hopkins. That combined with the late-season swoons that have plagued Kliff Kingsbury, and the shine is coming off Murray a little. I still have him Top 10, but I don’t feel rock solid about it.

11. Derek Carr, Las Vegas Raiders—Carr was pushing the Top 12 last season without Davante Adams or Josh McDaniels. Now he has both, and he’s in a division that figures to be about the best in the league. I like Carr a lot.

12. Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins—Am I too high? Perhaps. But heading into the draft, many had Tua as their QB1. The Dolphins are surrounding him with weapons and a new, offensive-minded head coach. It’s a make-or-break year, and I think he’s going to show out.

13. Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers—I get it, Rodgers is great. He’s one of the best to ever play the game. He still needs receivers. Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb are his current starters. That should change by the draft or another miracle, but Rodgers is aging in a run-first scheme that lost Adams. I’m dropping him a little.

14. Justin Fields, Chicago Bears—The ranking difference between Fields and Trevor Lawrence wasn’t huge for me heading into last year’s draft. I know Fields didn’t thrive in 2021, but I still believe in his talent. I think he’ll take a step this year.

15. Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars—Lawrence was the top overall pick last year but struggled in Jacksonville. The team changed coaches and has been adding weapons, which is promising. Hopefully we see him take a step forward in 2022.

16. Mac Jones, New England Patriots—Jones wasn’t the most high-profile quarterback selected in last year’s draft, but he was the most successful. The Patriots are adding some weapons but Jones probably doesn’t have the ceiling of some of those in his draft class. Still, he feels like a safe choice.

17. Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles—I might be too low. I get the potential. I also am not confident that the Eagles view him as The Guy. This could well be a make-or-break year for Hurts and I’m not confident he is the starter in 2023, so I’m hedging my bets.

18. Zach Wilson, New York Jets—The No. 2 overall pick from last season had a middling rookie year. But the Jets are building something. He’s being surrounded by talent and should take a step forward in 2022. If he doesn’t, it might be time to cut our losses.

19. Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings—Cousins has never been the flashiest quarterback but he remains a steady producer. He’s locked into the Vikings for at least a couple more years and has a great group of weapons on offense. He’s a steady QB2 pick.

20. Matt Ryan, Indianapolis Colts—Ryan probably doesn’t have a lot of years left, but his trade to the Colts puts him in a good position to produce QB2 value for a team in the playoff mix.

21. Ryan Tannehill, Tennessee Titans—Tannehill could surprise some this season. With A.J. Brown, Robert Woods and Austin Hooper, he has a great group of passing weapons. The question is volume in a run-first scheme.

22. Trey Lance, San Francisco 49ers—I have never been high on Lance. He was my No. 5 quarterback in the draft and nothing I saw in 2021, or his current situation, gives me confidence. I may turn out to be wrong, but I’m staying away.

23. Carson Wentz, Washington Commanders—Was the 2021 season about Wentz’s skill or his injuries? It’s unclear. But he’s on his third team in three years and doesn’t feel like a long-term option in Washington. His stock is fading.

24. Daniel Jones, New York Giants—The Giants talked a lot about setting up Jones to succeed in 2022. They also seem to be hedging their bets. It’s a make-or-break year and I’m not ready to go all in on Jones.

25. Jimmy Garoppolo, San Francisco 49ers—I think it’s possible Jimmy G. stays in San Francisco and starts in 2022. His ranking here is also a commentary on the current state of the position, especially as we’re waiting for all the dust from the draft to settle.