2025 Oscars: Actress races


 The 97th Academy Awards take place on Sunday, March 2. The nominations were announced on January 23. In the run up to this year's awards, I'm looking at different races. Today, it's the race for actress.

Best Actress Nominees:

  • Cynthia Erivo, Wicked
  • Karla Sophia Gascon, Emilia Perez
  • Mikey Madison, Anora
  • Demi Moore, The Substance
  • Fernanda Torres, I'm Still Here
About: Gascon has basically eliminated herself with the comments that came out. Despite her film leading the nominations, she has no shot. Erivo was great, but she is little more than a dark horse candidate here. The same is true of Torres, though she feels like a more realistic dark horse candidate. Still, those three feel like longshots (or no shots). But, the race comes down to Madison and Moore. Both were great and both have their fans. A tidal wave for Anora could put Madison on top. But I think it's Moore's year. She's won a number of awards leading up and she makes for a wonderful story. I'm leaning Moore.

Best Supporting Actress Nominees:
  • Monica Barbaro, A Complete Unknown
  • Ariana Grande, Wicked
  • Felicity Jones, The Brutalist
  • Isabella Rossellini, Conclave
  • Zoe Saldana, Emilia Perez
About: This is a somewhat open field. Barbaro was, perhaps, a surprise inclusion, but her film has some momentum. She's also quite good. Jones could ride a tidal wave with The Brutalist, and also gives a good performance. But I think the best dark horse is Rossellini, who could pick up some momentum from her film, which feels like it is surging toward Best Picture. But what about the favorites? There are two. Grande has a lot of fans and is in the more popular Wicked. Her performance is grand and one of my favorite things about the film. Saldana feels like she entered the race a front-runner, and her film was the most nominated. But recent controversies may hurt her and the film. This feels like a race too close to call, but my heart leans Grande and my head says Saldana still gets the win.

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