Academy Award picks, Pt. 1

The annual Academy Awards ceremony will be held on Sunday, honoring the best of films in 2010. In preparation for this year’s ceremony, I’ve taken a look at several of the key races, predicting who will win and looking at who should win. Tomorrow I'll have my picks in the rest of the races.

Best Picture

This is likely a two-horse race. Though there are 10 films nominated in the field, only “The King’s Speech” and “The Social Network” stand a good chance of taking home the top prize. Though there has been some support for “The Fighter” as a dark horse, it will likely do better in the acting races. The best bet for a winner here is “The King’s Speech,” which has dominated the recent guild awards. While I think “The King’s Speech” will win the award, the best film in the race is “The Social Network,” which will likely have to settle for writing and directing awards.

Will Win: "The King's Speech"

Should Win: "The Social Network"

Best Actor

Colin Firth (“The King’s Speech”) is the most sure bet of any of the acting award categories. He gives a strong performance in the film and fell just short last year. My preference was for the work done by James Franco (“127 Hours”), who did more to carry his film thank Firth did. I can’t imagine “127 Hours” being an Academy Award nominee without Franco, which is another reason I preferred his work. But look for Firth, who certainly gave a great performance in his own right, to take home the award.

Will Win: Colin Firth, "The King's Speech"

Should Win: James Franco, "127 Hours"

Best Actress

This race likely belong to Natalie Portman (“The Black Swan”), who turned in a dynamic performance as a driven ballerina teetering on the brink of madness. She had a difficult task and pulled it off well. Some support could go for indie darlings Michelle Williams and Annette Bening, but look for Portman to capture Oscar gold.

Will and Should Win: Natalie Portman, "The Black Swan"

Best Supporting Actor

Christian Bale is the front-runner in this race. Though Geoffrey Rush may garner some support for his excellent work in “The King’s Speech,” Bale gives the superior performance. He disappeared into the role of Dicky Eklund in “The Fighter.” Bale has capture many of the pre-Oscar prizes and should do the same here.

Will and Should Win: Christian Bale, "The Fighter"

Best Supporting Actress

This might be the most wide-open of the major races at Sunday’s awards. Amy Adams and Melissa Leo both gave terrific performances in “The Fighter,” and both have the potential to take home the trophy. Leo has racked up most of the pre-Oscar awards. But I think the most dynamic performance in the category belonged to Hailee Steinfeld in “True Grit.” Look for her to take the trophy home Sunday.

Will and Should Win: Hailee Steinfeld, "True Grit"

Best Director

Tom Hooper (“The King’s Speech”) won the Director’s Guild prize and could ride the wave of momentum for his film to the Oscar Sunday. However, I think the prize rightfully belongs to David Fincher, who did an incredible job with “The Social Network.” Look for the Academy to spread the love and give Fincher the award Sunday.

Will and Should Win: David Fincher, "The Social Network"

Best Original Screenplay

This is a tough category. My favorite entry is Christopher Nolan’s work on “Inception,” which I think was one of the best films of the year. The indie “The Kids Are All Right” has garnered some support in this category as well, but I think the award will go to David Seidler for his work on “The King’s Speech.” Nolan may have done the best work, but look for Seidler to take the prize Sunday.

Will Win: David Seidler, "The King's Speech"

Should Win: Christopher Nolan, "Inception"

Best Adapted Screenplay

This is one of the surest bets of the night, with Aaron Sorkin solidly in front of the competition for his work on “The Social Network.” Sorkin is one of the best writers working, and this film was one of his best efforts to date. He will and should claim the award Sunday night.

Will and Should Win: Aaron Sorkin, "The Social Network"

Best Animated Film

This is another lock, with “Toy Story 3” the clear favorite. It’s rare for an animated film to capture a Best Picture nomination, and even more rare for an animated film to forge an emotional connection with audiences of every age group. “Toy Story 3” did that this year and is the clear favorite to win this award on Sunday night.

Will and Should Win: "Toy Story 3"

The annual Academy Award ceremony begins at 5:30 p.m. on Sunday night.