Academy Award Previews — Actor races

The Academy Awards are on Sunday night, so it's time to preview the races. In this post I'll look at the races for Best Actor and Best Supporting Actor

Best Actor:
Steve Carell, "Foxcatcher"
Bradley Cooper, "American Sniper"
Benedict Cumberbatch, "The Imitation Game"
Michael Keaton, "Birdman"
Eddie Redmayne, "The Theory of Everything"

* For much of the early part of awards season, it felt like this category belonged to Keaton for his incredible work in "Birdman." Keaton followed up the critics awards with winning a Golden Globe. But Eddie Redmayne — who delivered a complex, physical performance as Stephen Hawking — won a Golden Globe, too. And he's since been a bigger hit with the guild awards. So now, it feels like a two-horse race. I still feel like Keaton will have the edge, but it's close. Another factor is Cooper, who's emerged as a dark horse thanks to the fact "American Sniper" is blowing up in theaters. This award could be one of the closest of the night.

Best Supporting Actor:
Robert Duvall, "The Judge"
Ethan Hawke, "Boyhood"
Edward Norton, "Birdman"
Mark Ruffalo, "Foxcatcher"
J.K. Simmons, "Whiplash"

* If the Best Actor race is wide open, the Best Supporting Actor race feels pretty close to a lock. Simmons has dominated the pre-Oscar awards, and for good reason. He is incredible, and incredibly compelling in "Whiplash." His performance makes an indelible impression, and a win for him here feels earned and could also be the only honor of the night for his film, which is also nominated for Best Picture. It's hard for me to imagine anyone else winning in this category. But for the sake of argument and analysis, there's always the potential for a dark horse. The biggest dark horse, according to prognosticators, seems to be Ruffalo, who gives a beautifully subtle performance opposite the crazy of Carell and Channing Tatum in "Foxcatcher." While he was good, I think the biggest dark horse might be Norton, who lights up the screen in his scenes in "Birdman." Were it not for Simmons and "Whiplash," Norton might have been my favorite in this category. He is great in the film, and it could draw some attention from Academy voters.