Fantasy Movie League, Fall Season Week 13

There have been three times this fall season where all my assumptions were wrong, and it cost me. Once was in September, when I bought into Mother!, and it flopped. Once was a bit later when My Little Pony looked like too excellent a deal, until it wasn’t.

The third time was last week. Justice League was tracking with better pre-sale numbers than Wonder Woman, and looked like and easy anchor choice. Wonder was modestly priced, but had projections all over the board. I bet on the Justice League. I bet wrong. Wonder made more than $27 million, and was easily the best value. Those that chose to put it on seven screens cleared more than $200 million last weekend, easily being the Perfect Cineplex. Mine made just over $70 million. So, yeah, that wasn’t great.

Now we enter the final week of the Fall Season and, barring a miracle, I’m not getting to the top spot in any league. I could still have a Perfect Cineplex, though, and that’s what I’m shooting for now.

On to Week 13!

New at the Box Office:

This week brings a pair of new releases, and a couple new entries into the game this week on movies that have been in limited release for a few weeks. The biggest of the new releases is Coco, the latest from Pixar. The film is also bolstered by a Christmas short from Frozen, which is sure to pack the kids in. Given all that, it would be reasonable to expect a huge opening. In fact, Coco is also a hit with critics, boasting a 96 percent on Rotten Tomatoes. But this one isn’t the most obvious sell for Pixar, and it’s story feels better suited to a release near Halloween or, better yet, Day of the Dead, rather than Thanksgiving. And that could be why it’s got some moderate projections. Fantasy Movie League sees $54.1 million, while Box Office Pro projects $51 million and Box Office Report projects just $46.5 million. Any of those projections likely have it in first place for the weekend, but at a cost of $719 FML Bucks, that feels like a poor choice as anchor.

The next big opening is The Man Who Invented Christmas, a tale focusing on the creative process for Charles Dickens as he worked to pen A Christmas Carol. The film boasts a healthy 79 percent critical score on Rotten Tomatoes and feels perfectly timed to capitalize on the holiday weekend crowd. The film costs just $68 FML Bucks, but theater counts could work against it. Fantasy Movie League calls for $3.4 million, while Box Office Report projects just $1.9 million. Box Office Pro doesn’t even see it in the Top 10 and didn’t offer a projection. So you’d have to feel that’s way off to bank on this film.

The other two new entries are smaller films getting a wider release. The first is Roman J. Israel, Esq., which stars Denzel Washington and comes from the team behind Nightcrawler. Nightcrawler was an odd, creepy film that featured great performances and was a player come awards season. Roman Israel wants to do the same, but it boasts a mediocre 55 percent critical score on Rotten Tomatoes and doesn’t seem to have much buzz. It costs $102 FML Bucks and has projections between $4 and $5 million, which doesn’t make it seem like a great bet.

The final entry is Loving Vincent, an even smaller indie film that’s an interesting experiment that explores the life of Vincent Van Gogh through animations of his paintings. It boasts an 80 percent critical score on Rotten Tomatoes, but feels like the kind of film with a small niche appeal. It costs just $6 FML Bucks, but boasts a projection of less than $500,000. It’s sort of a stay away for me.

The Search For The Best Value:

Last week Wonder exploded for a huge box office haul on a small cost. This week it costs $298 FML Bucks, but projections have it going between $28-$30 million, an increase over opening week. That could make it a sneaky choice as a good value, and also an ideal choice as an anchor.

I also like a couple smaller films as potential Best Value candidates. One is Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, which I correctly projected to outpace its projections last week. It did, and it’s expanding screens. It has incredible buzz, too. I also like The Man Who Invented Christmas. I attended a screening on Wednesday night, and it was pretty full. I’m thinking that it’s a film that’s being under estimated greatly at this point.

This Week’s Lineup:

This week it’s go big or go home. There are some interesting options to anchor, but I believe that Justice League will underwhelm again and Coco will be on the low end of projections.

Wonder x2
The Man Who Invented Christmas x5
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri