Fantasy Movie League, Winter Season, Week 1

So we’ve reached the point in the Fantasy Football season where the end is a lot closer than the beginning, especially for those out of the playoff race. While you can enter DFS tournaments until the first Sunday in February, you’re likely starting to look at alternatives to fill you time.

Thankfully the Fantasy Movie League has you covered! It’s a fun, weekly came that comes in four 13-week seasons. The Winter Season begins this weekend, and will carry through February. Getting a team and playing is free, just visit www.fantasymovieleague.com. The concept is also simple: you get a $1,000 budget each week to fill eight screens. There are 15 movies in the pool each week, each priced differently according to projected Box Office Performance. Your job is to try and pick the right combination to maximize profits. If you do, you get a bonus for a Perfect Cineplex. If you pick the movie that’s the Best Value (the one that makes the most money per cost), you also get a bonus.

Let this weekly column be your friendly guide to this competition from a veteran player and movie lover who spends WAY too much time nerding out on these things. I include helpful links each week embedded in the column so you can see Box Office projections from a trio of sites to try and make your own Perfect Cineplex.

Each week I’ll recap the previous week’s action and look at my place in the standings of two groups in Fantasy Movie League — one for Fantasy Life App players and one for Friends of TMR (Matthew Berry, a co-creator of the competition).

If you love fantasy competitions and movies, or even if you just love competition, this is the perfect game to play. I’ve been playing year-round for two years and I love it. I hope you will, too. If you’ve never played, now is the perfect time to jump in!

On to Week 1 of the Winter Season!

New at the Box Office

The first couple weeks of December will be rough in terms of new, wide-release movie options. But this first week of the new season, Fantasy Movie League does offer three titles new to the game, all of them limited release movies that figure to be serious award contenders. The most high profile of the the three is The Disaster Artist, written by, directed by and starring James Franco. The film boasts an impressive 96 percent critical score, and features Franco’s brother, Dave, and friend Seth Rogen, too. It tells the true story of director Tommy Wiseau and his efforts to bring The Room to the screen, a film referred to as the Citizen Kane of bad movies. No doubt this will be a lot of fun, but not everyone will have access to it this weekend. (It has a major expansion on December 8). The film costs $13 FML Bucks, but it’s projected at just under $400,000, making it a longshot for anything but Best Value.

The next smaller entry is Wonder Wheel, the film featuring Kate Winslet and coming from director Woody Allen. It’s a period piece set on Coney Island, and it’s been savaged by critics with just a 46 percent critical score on Rotten Tomatoes. Allen’s name still carries weight, but the film is in limited release and doesn’t have a lot of buzz. It costs a modest $6 FML Bucks, but it would be lucky to make more than $250,000 this weekend. That makes it a poor bet in your Cineplex.

The final new entry is Call Me By Your Name, a film riding a wave of critical buzz that includes taking the top prize at the Gotham awards this weekend. It was also on the Top 10 list for the National Board of Review, and it boasts a score of 98 percent on Rotten Tomatoes. It’s practically a shoe-in for Academy Award nominations, but it likely won’t have a wide distribution until early 2018. It costs just $8 FML Bucks, but it’s only projected at about $300,000 this weekend.

The Search For The Best Value

There are no new wide releases this week, which means our anchor options center on the four biggest releases from November — Coco, Justice League, Wonder and Thor: Ragnarok. Coco was the top option at the Box Office last weekend, and it’s projected to be tops again. But in its first week in release, it fell below top end projections, which suggests that it’s on a more modest track. It costs the most at $417 FML Bucks and boasts modest top end projections. Fantasy Movie League sees it at $25.2 million, while Box Office Pro sees it at $26.5 million and Box Office Report is most bullish at $28.5 million. It’s held up decently well in mid-week daily takes, but you’d need it to be at that top end of projections to use it as an anchor. Still, the film has good word of mouth, which could help.

Among the other anchors, Justice League has low scores, bad word of mouth, and has been a modest disappointment at the Box Office. Wonder was a sneaky huge hit in its first week, but it’s come back to earth a bit. And Thor: Ragnarok has simply been out for a month and, though a strong performer, is continuing the natural decline. Fantasy Movie League is the highest on Justice League and Wonder, and they’re priced accordingly.

For me, the Best Value is likely to come from smaller films. I, again, like Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri. The film has been gaining steam and boasts an incredible 95 percent on Rotten Tomatoes. It also had a strong showing last week despite limited screens, which are expanding this weekend. (In my city alone it went from no screens to being in four theaters.) The cost increased to $74 FML Bucks this week, but I feel like it’s a movie poised for a big Box Office Jump. Fantasy Movie League projected $4.2 million, but Box Office Report saw it at $5 million. I think it could potentially jump both those totals.

This Week’s Lineup

This week I’m going with my gut on Three Billboards. I also like Coco to hold up decently in its second week in release. Last week the surprise Best Value was Murder on the Orient Express. It’s a film that has a lot of staying power, especially for the crowds that don’t flock to the theater on opening weekend. Projections put it between $7-$8 million, which seems like a decent bet.

Coco

Murder on the Orient Express x2

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri x4

The Man Who Invented Christmas