Fantasy Movie League, Christmas Weekend



Star Wars is here, and so is Christmas. This week saw two wide releases on Wednesday, three more on Friday and the expansion of several smaller films. In total, with Star Wars condensing down to one entry from daily pricing, there are nine new options for Fantasy Movie League this weekend. That’s a lot.

But before we look ahead, it’s time to see how things went last weekend. I correctly called that Star Wars on Friday was the best anchor, but it all came down to how you filled out the cineplex. The most popular option was Star Wars (Friday), Thor: Ragnarok x7. That brought in $126.6 million. The Perfect Cineplex, which correctly nailed that Daddy’s Home 2 would be the Best Value, was Star Wars (Friday), Daddy’s Home 2 x7, which brought in $150 million. That combination was correctly nailed by 713 people.

My lineup: Star Wars (Friday), Wonder x2, The Shape of Water x5 brought in $123.7 million, so I have some work to do.

With a plethora of options this week, it will be interesting to see what maximizes value.

New at the Box Office:



As mentioned there are nine new options. Two of them — Star Wars and The Best of the Rest — are really movies we’ve had before packaged in a new way. But there are seven brand new movies in the competition. The biggest is arguably Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle, which features an all-star cast and is a follow up of sorts to the original film released in 1995. The film, which stars Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson, Kevin Hart and Jack Black, has been well reviewed, earning a 77 percent critical score from Rotten Tomatoes. It opened on Wednesday, and it’s projected a strong second over the holiday weekend. Fantasy Movie League projects it at $46.7 million, while others are more cautious. Box Office Report projects it at $40 million while Box Office Pro projects $39 million. The film is the second most expensive of the week at $275 FML Bucks. With Star Wars at $815 FML Bucks, it’s worth considering if a stack of these smaller films could be a better value.


The second biggest new option of the weekend is another sequel, Pitch Perfect 3. Unlike Jumanji, it has an appalling 33 percent critical score from Rotten Tomatoes. That being said, it’s hard to imagine the target audience here will be dissuaded by mediocre reviews. The film is third most pricey at $251 FML Bucks, and it’s projected at third at the Box Office (it opens Friday). Fantasy Movie League calls for $40.6 million, while Box Office Pro sees $34 million and Box Office Report sees $33 million. With it being close in price to Jumanji, the disparity in potential earning is a red flag for Pitch Perfect 3 unless you think the pros are wrong.


Next up is The Greatest Showman, a new musical about the life of P.T. Barnum starring Hugh Jackman and Zac Efron. It opened on Wednesday and has middling reviews, with a 49 percent critical score on Rotten Tomatoes. The film boasts a price of just $110 FML Bucks, but it doesn’t have strong projections. Fantasy Movie League projects $16.1 million and Box Office Report projects $17 million, but Box Office Pro only projects $14 million. That could make it tough to match or exceed the value of Star Wars, even at a lower price.


Next up is Downsizing, the comedy starring Matt Damon and Kristen Wiig that comes from writer/director Alexander Payne. The film looked to have the ingredients to be an award contender, but it boasts just a 56 percent critical score on Rotten Tomatoes. The film costs just $72 FML bucks, but it carries a projection of $12.3 million from Fantasy Movie League, $12 million from Box Office Pro and just $10.5 million from Box Office Report. It’s possible this is a film that could get lost in the shuffle on a crowded holiday weekend.


Another comedy, Father Figures, also gets a wide release on Friday. It stars Owen Wilson and Ed Helms as a pair of brothers on a quest to find their father. It is certainly counter programming to a lot of what’s out there, but it doesn’t yet have a critical score. This won’t likely be a strongly reviewed film, but it’s also not likely the kind of film that depends on reviews. The film is just $54 FML Bucks, but it’s only projected at $7-$9 million this weekend, making it Box Office filler at best.


The final new films as Darkest Hour and All The Money in the World. Darkest Hour opened in limited a month ago and is expanding this weekend, while All The Money in the World is on a limited opening to qualify for an awards season run. They’re both on the lower end of the cost spectrum, with All The Money in the World at $31 FML Bucks and Darkest Hour at $16 FML Bucks. At that price point, Darkest Hour has intriguing Best Value appeal. 

The Search for the Best Value:



It’s all about an anchor, then finding the right filler. Star Wars is a massive expense, but it also looks to put up a massive number and lead the Box Office again. Fantasy Movie League calls for $134 million, while Box Office Pro sees $115 million and Box Office Report sees $128 million. Either way, it’s a formidable anchor. You’d need to believe Jumanji has a shot to top even the most ambitious projection to believe it could be the best anchor. So, once again, it comes down to packing the screen. Darkest Hour is the second cheapest option this week at $16 FML Bucks, yet it gets an expansion of 700-plus screens on Friday. That gives it a great shot at the top 10, and makes it a great Best Value option.

This Week’s Lineup:

I looked at a dozen combinations, and a variety of Box Office hauls and I settled on the following based on projections.

Star Wars: The Last Jedi

Coco x2
Darkest Hour x5

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