Fantasy Movie League, January Doldrums

Yet again, Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle was not only the top film at the Box Office, it was so far out in front it became a great value. But not the Best Value. That belonged to The Greatest Showman, which like Jumanji, just keeps getting stronger the longer it’s in release. The Perfect Cineplex was Greatest Showman x7, Pitch Perfect 3, which brought in $139.5 million over the holiday.

The Most Popular Cineplex featured The Commuter x6, Pitch Perfect 3 x2, and it netted $109 million thanks to the fact that Liam Neeson proved he’s stronger at the Box Office than projections gave him credit for being. My gamble — Star Wars x6, Pitch Perfect 3 x2 — wound up with $102.4 million because Star Wars just hasn’t shown the staying power we expected.

What did prove to be true was that the glut of new releases weren’t good bets. Paddington 2 and Proud Mary under performed all projections, and The Post was fine, but not spectacular. So if you banked on those, it was tough sledding.

This weekend features another group of new movies, but once again it’s likely that Jumanji will remain atop the Box Office. So let’s dive in and see what the options might be.

New at the Box Office:

There are four new movies entered into the pool of 15 this week in the competition but one, I, Tonya, has been there before and was last week part of the “Best of the Rest” option. So that leaves three films new to the competition, beginning with 12 Strong. This film, starring Chris Hemsworth, tells the story of a group of soldiers that provided the first strike following the 9–11 attacks. It boasts a 65 percent on Rotten Tomatoes, and is likely to draw a decent audience thanks to the subject and star Hemsworth. But is it a good value? It costs $251 FML Bucks, second most, and that’s in line with the Fantasy Movie League projection of $17.9 million. But Box Office Pro sees just $12 million and Box Office Report sees just $13.3 million. That kind of disparity in projections, along with its cost, makes it a dicey bet in the competition.

The second new entry is another action film, Den of Thieves. The film, which stars Gerard Butler as the leader of a group of questionable cops hunting some high-profile thieves, wants to be a grittier Heat. It doesn’t boast a score on Rotten Tomatoes, yet, but its 140 minute run time could be an impediment to big audiences. Not to mention it’s likely to be direct competition to a glut of male-focused films. Accordingly, the cost is just $94 FML Bucks for this film, which is in line with some pretty modest projections. Fantasy Movie League sees a projection of $6.1 million, while Box Office Pro sees $5.9 million. Box Office Report, however, is much more bullish with a projection of $10.3 million. If you believed in that latter projection, Den of Thieves could be an exceptional value. But let’s just say I’m skeptical.

The final new entry is Phantom Thread, the latest film from acclaimed director Paul Thomas Anderson and starring Daniel Day Lewis in what is supposed to be his final role. Day Lewis is perhaps the finest actor of his generation, and Anderson has quite a film following. Their last collaboration, There Will Be Blood, is an all-time classic. This story has kind of gone under the radar a bit, but it boasts a 92 percent critical score on Rotten Tomatoes and is certain to earn at least one Academy Award nomination on Tuesday. It’s finally expanding to more locations, and doubtless many will want to check it out. It’s only $52 FML Bucks, but it boasts modest projections. Fantasy Movie League sees $3.4 million, while Box Office Report sees $4.7 million. Box Office Pro didn’t see it landing in the Top 10, and didn’t offer a projection. Still, it’s a potential value, depending on how it finishes at the Box Office.

The Search for the Best Value:

Last week the two best values were The Greatest Showman and Jumanji, films in release since before Christmas that just keep going at the Box Office. Jumanji is once again the most expensive film, and the cost for The Greatest Showman has jumped from $132 to $156, indicating a correction to obstruct those chasing last week’s success. Similarly, it’s hard to believe in The Commuter, which isn’t likely to draw the same kind of crowd in week two with other action releases (12 Strong, Den of Thieves) providing some competition.

So what does look like a solid value? Well, I come back to Insidious: The Last Key, which also outpaced projections last week and in its opening week. It’s sitting at just $74 FML Bucks, but it boasts projections of $4.8 from Fantasy Movie League but $5.5 and $5.7 million from Box Office Pro and Box Office Report, respectively. That could put it in range of Star Wars, or ahead of it, making it a good lower end value.

This Week’s Lineup:

Let’s just say I’m still a Jumanji believer. Every projection has it in first place for the weekend, with those from Box Office Pro and Box Office Report showing it as being in first by several million. Never. Underestimate. The Rock. I also like the chance of Insidious as Best Value, so I’m riding those two.

Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle, x2

Insidious: The Last Key x5

Pitch Perfect 3