Fantasy Movie League, The Maze Runner Debuts

Sometimes the analysts just blow it. And if you don’t have a gut feeling to go against them, you can’t catch the wave. Last week was one of those weeks. Den of Thieves had moderate projections across the board and was listed at just $94 FML Bucks. The Most Popular Cineplex was Jumanji, Den of Thieves x7. And when Den of Thieves soared to $15.2 million opening weekend, that produced a Perfect Cineplex that grabbed $144 million.

I, however, wasn’t bullish on Den of Thieves. Instead, it seemed to me that Insidious had a shot at being a great value with its price. I went Jumanji x2, Insidious x5, and Pitch Perfect 3. If you took out Den of Thieves, Insidious was the Best Value. My instincts on that film, based on projection and Box Office, were correct. My instincts overall were flawed. Let’s just say I need to do better.

This week brings five new additions to the game, but really three new films. And for the first time in a month, Jumanji is predicted to get knocked off the top spot. Let’s see if it happens.

New at the Box Office:

As I noted, there are five new options in the game this week. One is the all-inclusive “Best of the Rest,” which will encompass everything not in the 14 films offered in the game. And one is a return of Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri, which isn’t a new movie but hasn’t been a solo option for a few weeks. But with its award wins and Academy Award nominations, it’s back as an option and one to consider.

Among the three truly new films, The Maze Runner: The Death Cure is the one that’s the most expensive and expected to be the best. In fact, everyone is projecting it to take the top spot at the Box Office, finally dethroning Jumanji. In fact, it’s the most expensive option at $358 FML Bucks, and that’s despite a middling 45 percent on Rotten Tomatoes at this point. This is the third film in a YA series that began in 2014 and featured a sequel in 2015. It’s been three years, so the audience is likely ready to see what happens here, and the film boasts a decent cast that includes Patricia Clarkson, Walton Goggins and Giancarlo Esposito, in addition to its fresh-faced stars. Fantasy Movie League sees it pulling in $22.8 million to grab the top spot. Box Office Pro sees $21 million and Box Office Report sees $23 million. So everyone thinks it will rise up to the top this weekend, possibly making it a solid anchor.

The next new wide release is Hostiles, the late 1800s western starring Christian Bale. As recently as last week some projected this film would be a player at the Academy Awards, which announced its nominees on Tuesday. So this wide release timing seemed ideal to catch the wave. Instead, the film didn’t log a single nomination, and is garnering middling projections despite a healthy 71 percent critical score on Rotten Tomatoes. It’s priced at just $126 FML Bucks, but Fantasy Movie League sees just $4.8 million. Box Office Pro feels similarly, projecting $4.5 million, while Box Office Report calls for $10.2 million. Really, for this to work it would need a Den of Thieves-like opening weekend.

The final new film is Forever My Girl, which opened in wide release last week and brought in $4.2 million. It’s based on a novel, and is a romance story about a country singer who returns home after eight years to the girl he left at the alter. It’s a nice piece of counter-programming to the award nominees and action/horror films dominating the Box Office. But it has just an 18 percent on Rotten Tomatoes. I, however, enjoyed it when I saw it last weekend. It opens at just $64 FML Bucks, but is projected at just $3.2 million for Fantasy Movie League. Box Office Report felt similar, projecting $3.1 million and leaving it well outside the Top 10. Given what it did last weekend, that feels about right, and doesn’t leave it as much of a Box Office value.

The Search For the Best Value:

It’s tempting, after last week, to want to chase the Box Office dollars. But with Den of Thieves, the game has corrected course, boosting the cost to $127 FML Bucks against a projection of $7.7 to $8 million from all three sites. Similarly, I wonder if the $10.2 projection for Hostiles from Box Office Report isn’t a bit of an outlier reaction to missing the Den of Thieves wave. Hostiles would need to hit that total to make it a great value and anchor.

The Maze Runner is similarly an interesting choice at the top. It’s the most expensive, but the projections are modest considering the franchise history. The first film opened with $32.5 million, while the sequel boasted $30.3 on its opening weekend. Three years and a crowded market place could have dulled interest, but if the film is close to its predecessors it could be a value consideration.

On the lower end, Star Wars: The Last Jedi is a potential value. It’s priced at $57 FML Bucks and boasts projections of $4.1 to $4.7 million. It was third in value last weekend, and could easily be at the top this weekend with a decent Box Office take and a drastic price cut.

This Week’s Lineup:

There is a group of films (The Post, 12 Strong, Den of Thieves, Hostiles) that are all relatively close in price. And all of them can be placed across seven screens. I was tempted to go a few ways (I’m not a big Maze Runner believer), but I thought The Post offered something interesting. Fantasty Movie League sees it at $7.6 million, but Box Office Pro calls for $11.3 million and Box Office Report is at $9.3 million. I think it could be a sneaky value option, and goes against the flow this week.

The Post x7

The Shape of Water