NFL Picks, Championship Week

We have reached another Championship Weekend as the final four teams standing are on the cusp of playing for a Super Bowl title. Those four are the New England Patriots, Jacksonville Jaguars, Philadelphia Eagles and Minnesota Vikings.

Now, I imagine if I’d told you that in August, you would have laughed. Probably not at the New England prediction, because they are a team with 19 players on their roster who have never known a season that didn’t include an AFC Championship Game. But the other three — they weren’t on the Super Bowl radar in a meaningful way in most cities in August.

In fact, this probably wasn’t the final four most people picked this time last week. I know I didn’t. And if you have been reading my picks column, you know I didn’t either. Like many, I got swept up in Falcons Fever (they were three point favorites in Philadelphia), forgetting that the Eagles were a great team all season. But I figured that game could go either way. But who would have figured that the Jaguars, led by Blake Bortles, could hang 45 points on the Steelers in Pittsburgh and out duel Ben Roethlisberger in a 45–42 playoff game? Probably not many. But it happened.

So now, Tom Brady, Bortles, Case Keenum and Nick Foles will be the starting quarterbacks during Championship Weekend. Somewhere Jeff Fisher feels vindicated in his belief that Keenum and Foles could lead teams to a Super Bowl, because one of them will…

So far this playoff season I haven’t been great. I was 2–2 last week, 2–2 during Wildcard Week and 4–4 for the playoffs. (My wife is 7–1, including 4–0 last week, which has me questioning plenty about my knowledge of football…) But there are three games left, so there’s still time for me to claw back.

AFC Championship Game:
Jacksonville Jaguars (12–6) at New England Patriots (14–3)
About: Brady is playing in his seventh straight AFC Championship Game and 12th overall. That is a lot of playoff experience. Bortles is playing in his third playoff game ever, but his team isn’t without experience. In fact, Malik Jackson, a core part of the defense, was a core part of the Broncos’ defense that beat Brady in the AFC Championship Game following the 2015 season and later bested Cam Newton in the Super Bowl. And their two playoff games show they can win in different fashions after they won a 10–3 slugfest on Wildcard Weekend and then won a 45–42 shootout in Pittsburgh. And the architect of this Jaguars’ team, Tom Coughlin, was on the sideline when the Giants handed Brady and Bill Belichick two of their most gutting losses in the Super Bowl. So what I’m saying is there is a chance. And if I was picking with my heart, I’d be tempted to call the Jaguars a team of destiny and be all in on the bandwagon as they try to get to the Super Bowl. If it happens on Sunday, I’ll be pumped. But, the logical part of my brain goes back to New England’s experience and the core of its team. Even if the Jaguars jump out to a 21–0 lead in New England, as they did in Pittsburgh, I’d never feel comfortable. After all, this is a Patriots’ team that trailed 28–3 to the Falcons in the Super Bowl and ended up hoisting the Lombardi Trophy. Brady is great in the playoffs, especially at home. The Jaguars are a nice story, but is that enough?
The Pick: Patriots 24, Jaguars 20
Lindsay: Patriots

NFC Championship Game:
Minnesota Vikings (14–3) at Philadelphia Eagles (14–3)
About: Throughout most of the season, these were the two best teams in the NFC. So it seems fitting that they’d meet in Philadelphia for the NFC Championship Game. For the Eagles, it’s a chance to cap a magical season with a Super Bowl berth. But it will come in a different fashion than they imagined as Foles continues to start in place of Carson Wentz, who was lost for the season with an ACL Tear following Week 14. Foles wasn’t incredible in the Divisional Round game, and he got away with at least one ill-advised pass against the Falcons, but the Eagles held serve thanks to their defense in a 15–10 win. The Vikings, meanwhile, will hit the road in hopes of going home for the Super Bowl. With the Super Bowl being played in their home stadium on February 4, the Vikings are hoping to be the first team in Super Bowl history with a true homefield advantage. It’s also easy to think they are a team of destiny after that incredible 61-yard TD strike to earn the win over the Saints in the Divisional Round. The Vikings have a strong offense, but they also have a strong defense. (It’s hard to imagine the Vikings’ defensive backs dropping an easy interception as the Falcons did.) And for the second time this season the Eagles are home underdogs, as the Vikings are favored by three points. This time, though, that feels right. This isn’t about underestimating the Eagles, as happened last week, so much as it’s about valuing the Vikings, and the team they’ve built all season. Were Wentz playing, it might be different. But given the elements and this match up, I feel like it’s the Vikings’ year.
The Pick: Vikings 27, Eagles 17
Lindsay: Vikings