Fantasy Movie League — Black Panther to dominate again


Well, if you went to the movies last weekend, odds are you and everyone you know or ever met went and saw Black Panther. While that might be a (slight) exaggeration, the film smashed Box Office records during its incredible four-day opening. And if it wasn’t in your Cineplex, you likely weren’t even in the running last weekend.

I had Saturday, plus a lot of Jumanji, in my Cineplex. Jumanji did well, and Saturday’s Black Panther outpaced projections. But so did every other day, and so did 15:17 to Paris. So the Perfect Cineplex was four Monday x4, which was the Best Value, plus 15:17 to Paris, The Post x2 and a blank screen. The Most Popular was Friday, Saturday, Maze Runner and five blank screens. Both placed better than me — so let’s not talk about it…

Black Panther again has daily scoring this weekend, which makes sense. Despite a trio of new releases, Black Panther is projected at more than $100 million over the three days, and will easily be the top film. In fact, I don’t think it will face a real challenge until March 9, when another Disney film — A Wrinkle in Time — finally opens. (Don’t bet against Oprah!)

So, the message is, have Black Panther in your Cineplex this weekend and grab the right combination of everything else. Speaking of which…

New at the Box Office:

As I noted, there are three new releases this weekend. The most prominent is Game Night, the comedy starring Rachel McAdams and Jason Bateman. I can’t wait for this one, especially after it scored an 85 percent from critics on Rotten Tomatoes. It’s modestly priced at $201 FML Bucks, and carries the second highest projection of the weekend (as a consolidated title). Fantasy Movie League projects $16.3 million, while Box Office Pro projects $16 million and Box Office Report projects $15 million. That’s a pretty tight spread, increasing my confidence it will be a solid play in the mid-range — especially given that it provides nice counter-programming to Black Panther and the Winter Olympics are winding down.
The next new release is Annihilation, the Natalie Portman sci-fi action film. It’s a bit of a connundrum. On the one hand, it’s been a hit with critics, posting a 90 percent Rotten Tomatoes critical score. On the other hand, it’s been the subject of controversy because the books upon which its based feature an Asian lead — the role Portman is filling. Will the controversy sour interest? Does the film have a lot of interest? The projections are modest — $10.4 million for Fantasy Movie League, $10 million for Box Office Pro and $11 million for Box Office Report. And its genre is closer to Black Panther, possibly erroding some audience. It is only $154 FML Bucks, but is that lower price enough to off-set the lower projections and risk?
Finally, the last new release is Every Day, a teen romance with a complex premise. Boy meets girl, boy likes girl, boy’s consciousness moves into a new body each night and he has to prove his love to her again… It’s gotten a 53 percent critical score on Rotten Tomatoes, which isn’t terrible considering the genre, and it’s only $45 FML Bucks, making it of possible interest on the low end. But the projections range from $3.2 million to $2.9 million, meaning most don’t see it as much of a draw. That could be, in part, because it’s devoid of bankable stars. This feels like a stay away.

The Search For the Best Value:

Listen, you need some combination of Black Panther as an anchor. Unlike last weekend, when Friday was the top cost, this weekend Saturday and Sunday are both more expensive. Saturday is the top cost, at $534 FML Bucks, while Sunday is $395 FML Bucks and Friday is $334 FML Bucks. And the daily scoring projections align with that thinking. Fantasy Movie League shows Saturday at $42.8 million, Sunday at $30.8 million and Friday at $28.2 million. To me, the minimal projection difference between Sunday and Friday, combined with the $61 FML Buck spread makes Friday an attractive anchor that could double up. And I think Friday could actually end up outpacing Sunday, making it a good Best Value candidate.

On the lower end, I like Early Man. Sure, it bombed on opening weekend, but it provides a little counter-programming and it’s just $26 FML Bucks. That makes it about half the cost of Every Day, while its projections range from $2 to $2.15 million. That makes it some nice Cineplex filler for a pretty low price.

This Week’s Lineup:

I’m betting on Friday, and the counter-programming appeal of Game Night.

Black Panther (Friday)x2
Game Night
Early Man x5

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