2018 Broncos Season, Predicting Pick 5

We are more than a week into Free Agency, and the 2018 Broncos' roster is starting to take shape. But a big piece of the next season will be about the draft, which includes the No. 5 pick for the Broncos. I'm participating in a mock draft next month, and as part of the research I've been thinking about who the Broncos should and might take. Conventional wisdom suggested a quarterback, but is that the right move?

The Broncos sit at five, with the Browns (1, 4), Giants (2) and Jets (3) in front of them. The Jets recently jumped up to the third pick from the sixth, indicating they're all in on getting a quarterback. With the Buffalo Bills also strongly in the market, the movement might not be over. It's even possible the Broncos could trade back.

But for now, we'll assume the top five picks hold.

The Browns seem incredibly likely to select a quarterback at No. 1. They seem to be in on Sam Darnold right now, but could still go with Josh Allen. For now, I'm going with them selecting Darnold.

The Giants are at two. They could use a franchise QB to sit behind Eli Manning, who only has a year or two left. There's also been rumors that the Giants might take Saquon Barkley, and they are now hosting Bradley Chubb. If they don't go quarterback, that creates an interesting situation. If they do take a QB, it seems like they favor Josh Rosen. For now I'm going to lean toward a quarterback and Josh Rosen.

At the third pick, the Jets will certainly draft a QB. If Darnold and Rosen are gone, I think that leads to them taking Josh Allen. It seems like they're out on Baker Mayfield.

At the fourth pick, the Browns are up again. I am leaning toward them snapping up Minkah Fitzpatrick, the outstanding defensive back that would help give them another great piece in the secondary.

That brings us to the Broncos at five, and if the first four picks go Darnold-Rosen-Allen-Fitzpatrick, then the Broncos would be looking at four possible options. The first would be quarterback Baker Mayfield, a prospect that Gary Kubiak loves. The second would be Saquon Barkley, the best running back in the draft. The third would be Chubb, the best pass rusher. And the final option I could see them considering would be Quenton Nelson, the guard out of Notre Dame that is the premier offensive linemen in this draft.

So let's make the case for these picks. The Broncos signed Case Keenum at QB, and they still have Paxton Lynch and Chad Kelly. John Elway has said the Broncos aren't giving up on Lynch yet, but that could just be lip service. Still, it's worth considering. Lynch was a first round pick in 2016, and at the time everyone said he was a project that would need two to three years to mature. And in his first two seasons with the Broncos he's started just four games, missed nearly all of last season with an injury, and had three offensive coordinators and as many offensive schemes. Do we really know who he is? Sure, what we've seen hasn't been great. But last season, I maintain that we might look at him differently if the wheel route to Devontae Booker had been ruled a catch and touchdown against the Raiders. And Kelly, we haven't seen at all after he spent his rookie year on IR.

So the Broncos have a solid, veteran starter locked in for two years, and two development prospects already. Given that, is Mayfield the right pick? Does it help this team win in 2018? Does it solve their biggest problems? I'm not sold.

That brings me to Barkley. The appeal of Barkley is clear. He's a generational talent. But, again, does it solve the Broncos' problems? Does it help get them over the hump? Von Miller re-did his contract to give the team more cap space, which has allowed them to keep C.J. Anderson. That means Anderson, Booker and DeAngelo Henderson are still with the Broncos. That's a decent backfield trio, meaning it's not the area of biggest need. Now, should the Broncos end up trading Anderson for an offensive lineman (as was rumored for a while) then that creates a dynamic where Barkley would be very much in play if he's still on the board. But let's say no trade happens.

So let's consider Chubb and Nelson. While I like the idea of Mayfield and Barkley, I don't think those are the right picks for the Broncos right now. That's why I like the idea of either of these two picks. When the Broncos won the Super Bowl in 2015, it wasn't because of their super-powered offense, it was because of their incredible pass rush.

Chubb gives them an incredible weapon opposite Von Miller, and gives them the makings of a ferocious front seven. I've been critical of this coaching staff and their ability to develop players, which is part of what also makes me leery about taking a quarterback. But pass rushers often don't need a lot of time to develop, particularly if there is someone like Miller (and Ray and Barrett) drawing additional blockers away from them. I would be perfectly happy seeing the Broncos land Chubb.

But perhaps the best choice might be Nelson. The Broncos' biggest problem the past few years has been along the offensive line. They have three good players in left tackle Garrett Bolles, guard Ronald Leary and center Matt Paradis. And that's great, but it takes five to run along the offensive line. Of course, drafting Nelson won't solve all the problems. But adding Nelson at the other guard gives the Broncos the makings of a strong core on the line for years to come. They would still need to find an answer at right tackle, but solidifying the offensive line is the fastest way to get better on offense.

The Broncos have a reliable QB and a couple strong receivers (Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders). And they saw last year they have a talented core of options in the backfield in Anderson, Booker and Henderson. But if you can't block, it doesn't matter. And the Broncos can't block. Nelson is the best player available at the Broncos' biggest area of need.

Regardless, we'll hear plenty of speculation between now and next month's draft.