Fantasy Movie League: Pacific Rim is back

Sometimes the Best Value choice is so ridiculously obvious that you can’t miss. Last week was one of those weeks, kind of. I Can Only Imagine got a $41 FML Buck tag based on low projections on Tuesday. But the end of the week, it was clear those projections were WAY off, and the film was going to easily crush its projections. So most people loaded up.

The smart people — i.e. those that got a Perfect Cineplex — used Black Panther, I Can Only Imagine x7. Most people did Black Panther, A Wrinkle in Time, I Can Only Imagine x6. I did Black Panther, Love, Simon, I Can Only Imagine x6. I was kinda smart, but not as smart as the majority or as the smartest people. It took guts to program that Perfect Cineplex, too, because you were leaving hundreds of FML bucks on the table. But that was the way to go.

This week, there’s five new movies in the field and none of them screams insane value. But for the first time since mid-February, it’s possible that Black Panther won’t claim the top spot at the Box Office.

New at the Box Office:

There are five new entries to the game (and six new movies in theaters) this week. The biggest of those is Pacific Rim: Uprising, the sequel to the 2013 summer spectacle. This one, of course, has a different creative team and an almost entirely different cast. But it still has giant robots saving the world from giant monsters. But while the first racked up a respectable 71 percent critical score, this sequel has been a bust with critics. It currently sits at 46 percent, but that’s likely not a major deterrent for audiences. And the film is projected to grab the top spot by everyone. Fantasy Movie League projects a modest $23.4 million, while Box Office Pro calls for $25 million and Box Office Report is the most bullish with $28.5 million. It’s the most expensive option at $340 FML Bucks, but if it hits the high end of projections it could be a reasonable anchor.

Next up is Sherlock Gnomes, another sequel, which is the follow up to the 2011 animated film Gnomeo and Juliet. Emily Blunt and James McAvoy are back, this time joined by Johnny Depp as the titular Sherlock Gnomes. This will be a great family-friendly option opening just in time for Spring Break. This one doesn’t have a critical score yet, but it’s likely not the kind of film depending on good reviews to drive interest. It costs $223 FML Bucks, third most, which is in line with its projected Box Office finish. Fantasy Movie League calls for $13.7 million, with $14.5 from Box Office Pro and $15 from Box Office Report. Still, being only $27 off Black Panther, it doesn’t feel like a value selection.

The next new release is the Bible-themed Paul, Apostle of Christ. It comes in at $155 FML Bucks, sixth most, but boasts just a 25 percent score on Rotten Tomatoes. It is timed well with Easter coming up, but it will be competing with the better reviewed I Can Only Imagine, which seems to have a more universal appeal. And the projections reflect that. Fantasy Movie League sees only $5.5 million, while Box Office Pro calls for $7.5 million and Box Office Report projects $8 million. This one isn’t likely to be a good value.

Next up is Midnight Sun, a teen romance that has yet to get a critical score on Rotten Tomatoes (though I’d assume it’ll be low). This time it’s about a girl (Bella Thorne) who can’t go out in the daylight… Considering the middling Box Office for the much more highly anticipated and critically acclaimed Love, Simon last week (and the fact it’s still there), I’m not hot on Midnight Sun. Nor is Fantasy Movie League, setting it at $66 FML Bucks and projecting at $4 million. Box Office Pro calls for $4.4 million and Box Office Report calls for $4 million. This is a stay away.

The final new entry is Unsane, another unappealing option. The film stars Clair Foy, who is hot right now, and comes from Steven Soderbergh, but seems to have little buzz. It boasts a perfectly reasonable 80 percent critical score, but it’s the cheapest new option at $58 FML Bucks. And its projections match that positioning — with projections between $3.7 and $3.9 million across the board. This could be a case of the wrong movie coming out at the wrong time given how many new films have dropped the past few weeks. Either way, it looks like a tough option.

The Search for the Best Value:

Black Panther has been the unstoppable force, and at $251 FML Bucks with projections between $16-$18 million, it’s an intriguing anchor option. Another intriguing option in Tomb Raider, which has steady projections between $10–$11 million, and costs $157 FML Bucks, fifth most.

In the middle range, it’s a toss up for me whether I like A Wrinkle in Time ($126 FML Bucks) or Love, Simon ($98 FML Bucks) more. Wrinkle has more steady projections around $8 million, but Simon has a superior price point. Among the low-end films, Game Night has a projection similar to Midnight Sun and Unsane, but it’s the cheapest of them at $56 FML Bucks, giving it a better chance at value.

This Week’s Lineup:

This is a week with a more muddled competition due to a glut of new entries and a far less clear path to victory. That means trying to look for value and going with your gut.

Tomb Raider x4

Love, Simon x3

Game Night