Fantasy Movie League: Ready Player One debuts


We’ve reached the end of March. It also marks Spring Break weekend for many (including families where I live in Colorado Springs) and Easter Weekend. It’s also the weekend of the Final Four. Could we possibly have more going on this weekend?

It hasn’t been a banner month for Hollywood. After Black Panther broke records in February, the Box Office has seen a swoon in March. That’s made it harder to project Cineplexes.

Last week I thought Tomb Raider and Love, Simon looked like good values. Many also bought into Love, Simon, as it x6 plus Tomb Raider and Black Panther was the Most Popular Cineplex. But Pacific Rim: Uprising bested projections, and it x2, Game Night x5, Red Sparrow was the Perfect Option.

This week four new films enter the game — including the most anticipated film of the month, Ready Player One.

New at the Box Office:

There are four new films in the competition this week, led by Ready Player One. The film, based on the classic novel and directed by Steven Spielberg, will bring all kinds of 1980s cultural nostalgia for many. And it’s a film that’s drawn decent reviews, boasting a 79 percent critical score on Rotten Tomatoes, while being the clear No. 1 at the Box Office this weekend. Of course, since the film opened Thursday (with preview screenings Wednesday) that will hamper the Friday to Sunday total for this game. It’s the most expensive option in the game, at $522 FML Bucks, while carrying a projection of $36.7 million from Fantasy Movie League. Box Office Pro also sees $36 million, while Box Office Report calls for $43 million. Either way, it seems to be the best anchor this week because it’s projection is so much stronger than other competitors. 
Next new release is Acrimony, the film that stars Taraji P. Henson as a jilted woman and comes from Tyler Perry. This doesn’t scream big Box Office draw, as it’s the kind of film we’ve seen before (and continue to see a couple times a year), and we’ve seen that Henson isn’t a huge Box Office Draw after her action film, Proud Mary, fizzled earlier this year. It costs $219 FML Bucks, second most, and is projected at $13.2 million by Fantasy Movie League. Box Office Pro sees $17 million and Box Office Report sees $18.5 million, so if you believed in those projections it could hold some value. I don’t. The film doesn’t have a critical score yet, but I would assume it to be low.
The third new release is God’s Not Dead: A Light in the Darkness, the third film in the God’s Not Dead franchise. It’s Easter weekend, so this seems like an ideal time for this kind of film to open. But it faces competition from I Can Only Imagine, which has bested projections its first two weeks, and Paul, Apostle of Christ. The film doesn’t have a score yet on Rotten Tomatoes, but it will probably be low, and it won’t matter to hard-core fans. The film costs $75 FML Bucks, which isn’t a lot, but it boasts modest projections. Fantasy Movie League sees $5.4 million, while Box Office Pro calls for $5 million and Box Office Report sees only $4.2 million.
The final new entry in the game is Isle of Dogs, the animated film from Wes Anderson that opened in limited release last weekend. The film boasts an impressive voice cast, and Anderson has a passionate fanbase. the film was also a hit with critics, currently sitting at 93 percent on Rotten Tomatoes. It’s also a bargain, at only $69 FML Bucks, but that comes with modest projections. Fantasy Movie League sees only $4.9 million, while Box Office Report sees only $3.2 million and Box Office Pro doesn’t even offer a projection, setting it below $4 million.

The Search for the Best Value:

I mentioned that Ready Player One looks like a hard-to-top anchor, especially if it hits the high end of projections. But where else can value be found? Well, a couple of films that have continued defying the odds caught my attention again this weekend. I Can Only Imagine has bested projections in each of its first two weeks, and could be the most ideal film to appeal to faith-based crowds this weekend thanks to great word of mouth. It’s $153 FML Bucks, and projected at between $10.3 and $11.2 million. If it’s above that, it could be an excellent value. 

Similarly, Black Panther continues to be a force at the Box Office, and could do well during this Spring Break Weekend. Its cost of $148 FML Bucks is slightly below I Can Only Imagine, and it carries projections slightly higher among all three sites. On the lower end, both Tomb Raider ($65 FML Bucks) and Paul, Apostle of Christ ($41 FML Bucks) look to have projections on Box Office Pro and Box Office Report that could put them in the value conversation.

This Week’s Lineup:

This week I’m playing the odds and putting in the four films I think have the best shot at getting me the Best Value.

Ready Player One
Black Panther
Tomb Raider x3
Paul, Apostle of Christ x3

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