Fantasy Movie League: The Calm Before The Summer Storm

Next week, the Summer blockbuster season begins as Avengers: Infinity War opens. Until then, we have a week with three new releases, but none that’s expected to take the top spot at the Box Office.

But before we get to that, it’s time to look back at last week. Things didn’t exactly go as planned. Sure, A Quiet Place was the right anchor, and the Best Value, but my combination of A Quiet Place and Sherlock Gnomes wasn’t the Perfect Cineplex. That honor went to A Quiet Place x2, Black Panther x2, Acrimony, The Miracle Season x2, Love, Simon. So I know there’s still work to be done!

And that continues this week as I Feely Pretty leads the three new entries to the game and the Box Office. But what’s the right anchor and best value? Let’s take a look.

New at the Box Office:

The biggest new release this week is I Feel Pretty, the comedy starring Amy Schumer. But big isn’t the greatest word to describe expectations, starting with the reviews, which have the film at 35 percent on Rotten Tomatoes. The film is priced at $251 FML Bucks, third highest, and projected at $16.2 million from Fantasy Movie League. Box Office Pro has it at $17 million and Box Office Report has it at $18.5 million. Given its proximity to Rampage in scoring, it could be a value if you think the films will be similar in their performance.

The second new film is a sequel — Super Troopers 2 — which no doubt has a legion of ardent fans. But will that be enough? The film got a terrible critical score from Rotten Tomatoes, boasting just 38 percent so far. It costs just $84 FML Bucks, but that aligns with modest projections. Fantasy Movie League calls for $5.2 million, while Box Office Pro sees $6.2 million. Box Office Report, however, predicts $11.8 million. If it hits that range, it could be a great value pick.

The final new entry is Traffik, an action film that seems to be flying under the radar. The film has no score yet on Rotten Tomatoes, but it doesn’t seem likely to be high. The film costs just $68 FML Bucks, but has mediocre projections. Fantasy Movie League projects $3 million and Box Office Pro projects $2.7 million. But Box Office Report is higher at $5.2 million. So depending on how you feel, that could make Traffik a value selection.

The Search for the Best Value:

The question is what to pick as anchor. I like the price point for I Feel Pretty, but to use it as anchor you have to believe in its Box Office Prospects. Schumer isn’t a big enough name to carry a big opening on her own. A Quiet Place was the best value last week, and continues to have strong buzz and word of mouth. But it’s the most expensive at $361 FML Bucks — the same price it was last week — and though it’s projected to finish first, the margin between it and second-place Ramage isn’t great. Rampage is only $258 FML Bucks, and while Fantasy Movie League has it at $17 million, four million below A Quiet Place, with Box Office Pro showing $17.2 million, an even bigger spread behind A Quiet Place. But Box Office Report shows it at $20 million, nearly even with A Quiet Place. 

On the other end of the spectrum, Ready Player One continues to do well, and could be a good value. It costs $95 FML Bucks, and Fantasy Movie League projects $5.8 million. But the other sites have it higher, at $7.3 million. It could be good Box Office filler.

This Week’s Lineup:

I considered a lot of options, but I feel like taking a big swing might be the way to go. I looked at the Box Office Report projections, and they’ve hit on some big upsets this year. So I’m giving them the benefit of the doubt again.

I Feel Pretty x2
Super Troopers 2 x5
Black Panther